Budapest – Hungary is escalating a dispute with Ukraine over oil shipments, announcing Wednesday it will gradually halt gas deliveries to its neighbor in response to Kyiv’s alleged obstruction of a key oil pipeline. The move, framed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as a defense of national interests, raises the stakes in a growing energy standoff with geopolitical implications.
Orbán has repeatedly criticized Ukraine in recent days regarding the Druzhba oil pipeline, characterizing the issue as both an energy security concern and a matter of domestic politics. He stated Tuesday that Ukraine may be intentionally creating a fuel shortage in Hungary ahead of upcoming elections, potentially influencing the political process. The prime minister believes the situation extends beyond the energy sector and could impact election outcomes.
On Wednesday, Orbán issued a clear message: Hungary will not supply gas to Ukraine until oil shipments are restored. This stance mirrors a previous position – “no oil, no money” – that has surfaced in European Union decision-making, particularly concerning a proposed Ukrainian defense loan. Last week, the European Council failed to approve a €90 billion ($97 billion) loan for Ukraine, with Hungary and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico both vetoing the measure.
Ukrainian officials have consistently suggested the potential resumption of oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline, with announcements of an imminent restoration appearing regularly, but these have not materialized.
According to Orbán’s announcement Wednesday, Hungary will progressively cease gas deliveries to Ukraine. This decision is a response to Ukraine’s alleged blockade of the Druzhba pipeline for the past 30 days. The prime minister explained that the gas remaining in Hungary will be stored domestically, with the goal of strengthening the country’s energy security and maintaining stable supplies: “We will protect Hungary’s energy security, and we will maintain protected fuel and reduced-rate gas prices!”
Orbán announced: “We are successfully defending ourselves against Ukrainian blackmail, and thanks to protected prices, Hungarians pay the lowest prices at gas stations in all of Europe. But we must move forward to break the oil blockade and ensure Hungary’s safe energy supply. […] we will gradually stop gas deliveries from Hungary to Ukraine, and we will store the gas remaining here at home. As long as Ukraine does not provide oil, Hungary will not receive gas. Since Ukraine is also attacking the southern gas pipeline supplying Hungary, we must build up reserves.”
What does this signify for Ukraine?
In 2025, approximately 3 billion cubic meters of gas were delivered to Ukraine from Hungary, accounting for around 44% of Ukraine’s total gas imports. Ukraine’s overall gas consumption last year was 21.3 billion cubic meters, with the gas from Hungary covering roughly 14% of the country’s needs. Oleksiy Anton, an expert at the Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation – who previously detailed Ukraine’s import ratios – highlighted to Index that the ratio remained similar in January and February of 2026.
from a consumption perspective, the proportion remains around 14%.
Monthly data supports this, with Hungary exporting approximately 294 million cubic meters of gas to Ukraine in January and around 270 million cubic meters in February. These volumes are comparable to the monthly levels in 2024 and 2025, translating to roughly 9-9.5 million cubic meters of gas per day flowing from Hungary to Ukraine.
In 2025, Ukraine imported 6.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The largest portion came from Hungary. Poland was the second-largest supplier with 2.1 billion cubic meters, representing 31%, although Slovakia provided 1.3 billion cubic meters, or about 20%. The remaining smaller portion, approximately 300 million cubic meters (around 2.5%), came through Moldova, and Romania.
Orbán’s announcement could therefore have a significant impact on Ukraine.
As previously noted, the gas from Hungary covers approximately 14% of Ukraine’s consumption. This represents particularly important given the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and Russia’s frequent attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure, primarily targeting production facilities. This disruption to domestic production elevates the importance of imports. The gradual cessation of Hungarian exports is expected to create difficulties.
Price increases and storage issues could arise in Ukraine
However, it’s important to note that Ukraine’s heating season effectively ended on March 24, meaning the decision will not immediately leave the population without heating. Problems are more likely to emerge after the heating season, as Ukraine will face challenges in replenishing its gas storage facilities. The move is not expected to directly impact households, but rather the replacement of lost gas volumes and ensuring future supplies could prove challenging.
gas prices in Ukraine are almost certain to rise. However, the supply situation is more complex. While Hungary plays a key role in deliveries, Ukraine has its own production and receives gas from other countries, primarily Poland. Whether actual supply problems arise will depend on several factors, including Ukraine’s gas demand in 2026 compared to 2025 levels.
The fact that the Hungarian side is talking about a gradual, rather than immediate, shutdown is also crucial.
The situation is also highly political. Orbán made it clear that Hungary will not export gas to Ukraine until Kyiv ensures oil deliveries. This suggests the situation is likely to be resolved relatively quickly.
Market expectations generally anticipate that the Druzhba oil pipeline could resume operations in April – at the latest, following the elections. The gradual nature of the gas supply halt is also a significant factor, making it uncertain how much Hungarian exports will ultimately decrease to Ukraine.
Ukraine currently has one of the lowest storage levels in Europe, making it particularly vulnerable to such disruptions.
This circumstance alone could contribute to rising gas prices. The gas storage facilities are predominantly owned by the Ukrainian state, meaning the effects will be most pronounced at the state-owned energy companies. Previous data indicates that approximately 5 billion cubic meters of Ukrainian reserves were state-owned, meaning the impact of the current changes will be felt primarily at that level.
What if the Slovaks follow suit?
Hungary has long been a key player in Ukraine’s import structure, but Poland and Slovakia are also important suppliers. However, if both Hungary and Slovakia were to halt deliveries, it would create a much more serious situation – the Slovaks have so far only stopped deliveries of diesel and electricity. This is as Ukraine’s domestic production alone cannot meet its consumption, requiring continuous imports. Not only consumption needs must be met, but storage facilities must also be replenished for the future.
Although Poland’s role has increased, and the expansion of border capacities and LNG procurement have emerged, this may not be sufficient to compensate for a complete loss of supply. A particular problem is that Ukrainian gas storage levels have been consistently low since 2022, typically around 25%. A safe operation requires a much higher level, at least 40–50%. If Hungary and Slovakia were to drop out as suppliers, even this low 20–25% level could not be maintained.
The question now is not only about ensuring current consumption – if the gradual shutdown of supplies results in a substantial volume loss in Ukraine – but also about whether Ukraine will be able to accumulate adequate reserves for the future.
The question is whether the Hungarian move is proportionate. Looking solely at the numbers and ratios, the answer is rather no. Hungary obtains approximately 90% of its oil imports through Ukraine, while Ukraine receives 44% of its gas imports from Hungary. This suggests that the cessation of Ukrainian oil supplies has a greater impact on Hungary than vice versa.
However, the picture is more nuanced. In the case of gas, the gradual cessation of Hungarian exports will not cause an immediate shock, as deliveries will not stop overnight. The impact is likely to be more moderate in the short term. In the medium and long term, however, more serious consequences can be expected, simply because the amount of gas Ukraine needs will not be fully available, and replacing it will become increasingly difficult.
(Cover image: A worker checks the pressure of gas at the FGSZ Földgázszállító Zrt. Plant in Vecsés on January 10, 2017. Photo: Szilárd Koszticsák / MTI)
