Hungary’s upcoming elections are being shaped by a strategy from Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to portray Ukraine as a primary threat to the country, a move analysts say is intended to rally voters ahead of the polls. The tactic comes as Orbán faces a strong challenge in the April 12 parliamentary elections, and as concerns grow over the ongoing war in Ukraine and its impact on the region. Orbán has launched a campaign featuring billboards and advertisements – funded by his government and utilizing artificial intelligence – that depict Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alongside EU officials with outstretched hands. The advertisements carry the slogan “We won’t pay!” referencing resistance to EU financial contributions. According to the Guardian, the campaign aims to convince voters that Ukraine, not domestic issues like the rising cost of living, poses the greatest danger to Hungary. “Effectively, Ukraine is portrayed as a main enemy,” said Zsuzsanna Végh, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund. “This is not just about Ukraine per se, but it fits into the standard strategy of the governing party, of mobilizing its electorate through generating fear in society.” However, one opposition leader, Péter Magyar, is attempting to circumvent Orbán’s strategy by focusing on domestic concerns. Magyar argues that economic failures under the current government are the true cause of high energy prices and other financial difficulties, pointing to lower fuel costs in neighboring countries like Poland, Czech Republic, and Bulgaria, as reported by Politico. Magyar’s Tisza party has also taken positions that diverge from mainstream European politics. Despite expectations of a pro-EU and pro-Ukraine stance, the party voted against a €90 billion aid package for Ukraine and opposed a key trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur. These votes have drawn criticism from within the European Parliament, leading to restrictions on the party’s participation in plenary sessions. “The Members of the European Parliament of Tisza seize note of this decision,” Magyar wrote on Facebook in response. “At the same time, we are grateful for the confirmation from Brussels that the politicians of Tisza have no owners.” The situation is further complicated by Magyar’s recent statements regarding Ukraine. At the Munich Security Conference, he prioritized the restoration of European funds for Hungary, stating that achieving this would require “strict anti-corruption measures, restoring the independence of the judiciary, and protecting freedom of the press and higher education.” He also indicated that his government would not support a fast-track entry for Ukraine into the EU. Adding to the political turmoil, Magyar recently alerted the public to a potential smear campaign orchestrated by the government. He claimed that authorities were preparing to release a secretly recorded sex tape in an attempt to discredit him. This claim emerged after a website appeared, allegedly linked to a Tisza party official, featuring a photograph of a disheveled bed with the caption “coming soon.” Magyar preemptively acknowledged a past intimate encounter, stating, “Yes, I am a 45-year-old man and I have a sex life.” The campaign has also seen the proliferation of disinformation, including AI-generated images and videos. Government-backed advertisements have appeared depicting fabricated scenarios designed to manipulate voters, while opposition groups have responded with their own AI-generated content. Polling data presents a mixed picture, with significant discrepancies between different research institutions. While some polls favor Tisza, others show Fidesz maintaining a lead. The complex Hungarian electoral system, which combines single-member districts with proportional representation, is also expected to play a role in the outcome. Experts suggest that Tisza may demand to outperform Fidesz by 3 to 5 percentage points nationally to secure a parliamentary majority. The election, scheduled for April 12, will determine whether Orbán’s narrative of external threats or Magyar’s promises of economic reform will resonate with Hungarian voters. The outcome could have significant implications for Hungary’s relationship with the EU and its stance on the war in Ukraine.
