From Tesla to Hyundai, a new battle is brewing in factories: the one for humanoid robots. Behind this $7.5 trillion bet, automakers are already redrawing their future.
Could the robots assembling your next vehicle look…human? A quiet revolution is underway in manufacturing as automakers, following the rush to electric vehicles, are investing heavily in humanoid robots – a market some estimate will reach $7.5 trillion by 2050, roughly $6.9 trillion euros. This staggering figure, exceeding the current size of the global auto industry, is capturing the attention of major players.
Leading the charge is Tesla, which is preparing to halt production of the Model S and Model X to make room for its Optimus robots. However, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Chinese companies like XPeng, Li Auto, and BYD are also advancing their own initiatives, through prototype development, partnerships with startups, and significant investments in artificial intelligence. This shift represents a significant turning point for automotive giants…and extends far beyond the electric vehicle itself.
Humanoid Robots to Boost Automaker Strategy
Automakers possess a key advantage: they already have the large-scale production of complex machines, equipped with sensors and safety software, mastered. As Stuart Taylor, a former Ford executive now heading product development at Envorso, explains, “A large part of the basic technology stack is already built, which translates directly into the field of robotics.” He details this common foundation: “Cameras and radars for perception, motors and power electronics, embedded control software, safety systems – these are all key areas of the automotive industry.” This experience can be readily adapted to create humanoid robots capable of operating within a factory environment.
From an industrial perspective, the projected volumes align well with the automotive model. “The estimated volumes for humanoid robots fall within the range of fixed investment costs, making them attractive to the automotive sector,” explains Ani Kelkar, a partner at McKinsey, describing a “sweet spot” of a few million units per year – a scale significantly larger than the aerospace industry, which produces only a few thousand, but smaller than the smartphone market, which produces billions.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that humanoid robots will generate $7.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2050 (approximately $6.9 trillion euros). Not everyone is convinced, however. Guy Hoffman, a robotics professor at Cornell University, cautions, “Most current demonstrations of humanoid robots are tightly controlled, often remotely operated, and do not represent autonomous systems ready for commercialization.” He also warns, “We are still awaiting major breakthroughs in robotic learning, and even when they occur, commercialization could take decades.”
Tesla Leads with Optimus and a Radical Vision
Tesla, once again, is taking the most ambitious approach. The company plans to end production of the Model S and Model X next quarter and convert its Fremont, California factory into an Optimus assembly line, with a stated goal of 1 million robots per year. A pilot line is already assembling the Optimus robot, targeting 5,000 units this year, before moving to mass production by the end of the year and unveiling Optimus Gen 3 in the first quarter.
Elon Musk even predicts a profound economic transformation: “With the advent or continued development of AI and robotics, I think we are heading towards a future of universal high income, not universal basic income, but high income.” His strategy centers on maintaining complete control of the technology, including the AI that powers the robots. “Tesla will always manage the entire value chain internally,” emphasizes Ani Kelkar, comparing this approach to the brand’s fully autonomous driving hardware and software suite.
Hyundai and Premium Automakers Launch Experiments
In response, other automotive groups are charting their own course. Hyundai plans to deploy Boston Dynamics’ Atlas humanoid robots at its production complex in Georgia starting in 2028, initially for parts handling, then for complex assembly tasks by 2030, with a goal of 30,000 robots per year. A training center will be established in the United States to train these machines, and José Muñoz, CEO of Hyundai Motor Co., stresses the role of assistance: “Our robots are not competing with humans. They are competing FOR humans.” The automaker is betting on a robotics-as-a-service subscription model, with partners like Nvidia and Google DeepMind for AI.
Mercedes-Benz is testing Apptronik’s Apollo robot, a startup that has raised $520 million (approximately $480 million euros) for a valuation of $5 billion (approximately $4.6 billion euros), while BMW experimented with Figure AI’s Figure 02 robot at its Spartanburg plant for 11 months. Figure AI boasts a valuation of $39 billion (approximately $36 billion euros).
China Accelerates the Humanoid Robot Race
In China, the race is even broader: the country has already deployed more than 10,000 humanoid robots, compared to a few hundred in the United States, primarily for data collection or entertainment. “This gives them the opportunity to have a much faster product design and iteration cycle and gives them an advantage that could amplify over time, as their motors and gears are tested in real-world conditions,” observes Ani Kelkar, who identifies more than 90 companies specializing in humanoid robots, with approximately 60% based in China.
Companies like Unitree and AgiBot have each deployed at least 5,000 robots, XPeng aims for mass production of its IRON humanoid robot by the end of 2026 and now presents itself as a “global embodied intelligence company.” Li Auto cites 2026 as the “last chance” to become an AI leader, merging cars and robots into a single entity, while BYD targets 20,000 humanoid robots by 2026, supported by a national roadmap.
According to Stuart Taylor, this wave will ultimately become ingrained in the industrial landscape: “I think over time, our normal tolerance threshold will move upwards and we will get used to the presence of these things, which will take on repetitive and harmful human tasks.” And for him, the trajectory is already set: “This proves therefore inevitable that we will get there.”
