Sweden’s military intelligence assesses that the threat posed by Russia is expected to grow through 2030 as its armed forces receive modern resources and undergo reforms. The warning comes as concerns mount over Moscow’s increasingly assertive posture in Eastern Europe and beyond, prompting heightened vigilance among NATO members.
Nuclear Threat
A resurgence in Russia’s nuclear rhetoric since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and its intensification since September 2024, is also raising alarms. The Swedish intelligence report highlights this escalating danger, noting a potential lowering of the threshold for nuclear weapon use.
The Kremlin is refining its nuclear doctrine
Sweden has also pointed to numerous threats of this nature received as it sought membership in NATO. Stockholm accuses the Kremlin of attempting to influence Swedish public opinion to oppose its accession.
Risks of a Premature Peace
Swedish authorities fear that a premature peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv could free up “resources to act more against NATO countries, including Sweden.” According to the report, “If the war in Ukraine were to end on Russian terms […] the pace of this build-up would accelerate. At the same time, existing Russian resources would become available.”
This assessment is shared by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, which also believes Russia remains “dangerous despite its incompetence,” according to a report by Politico. The service also noted that Russia continues to produce artillery, indicating it would still pose a threat even if a peace agreement were reached in Ukraine.
“One cannot simply stop everything the day the war ends. Russia will eventually be, in some regions, a more powerful military force than at the beginning of its war against Ukraine,” a senior NATO official told Politico. The statement underscores the need for continued vigilance and preparedness even as diplomatic efforts continue.
