A recent poll suggests that Gabriel Rufián, a spokesperson for the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), is the preferred choice among progressive voters to lead a united left-wing coalition in Spain. The findings come as Spanish political parties grapple with how to counter the growing strength of far-right factions and maintain the current progressive government. The debate over leadership was further fueled by the recent announcement that Vice President Yolanda Díaz would step back from the process.
The survey, conducted by 40dB for Cadena SER and El País, asked voters to rank twelve political and union leaders for their suitability to head a potential unified candidacy outside of the Socialist Party. According to the results, 34.5% of the general population favored Rufián, but his support jumped to 52% among voters who identify with left-leaning parties like Sumar, Podemos, Esquerra, EH Bildu and the BNG.
Rufián’s lead over other potential candidates is significant. He holds a more than 40-point advantage over Irene Montero, the former Minister of Equality and a political secretary for Podemos, who received support from only 10% of those polled. Emilio Delgado, a leader from Más Madrid, came in third with 7.7% of the vote, while other prominent figures, including ministers from Sumar, garnered less than 5%.
Beyond preferred leadership, the poll as well assessed the public’s perception of these figures. Rufián is the second most recognized politician among the general population – after Vice President Díaz – with 91% name recognition and a 44.5% approval rating. While Díaz remains well-known by 90% of Spaniards, her approval rating stands at around 33%, potentially reflecting the challenges of holding a prominent government position. Delgado enjoys a similar approval rate to Rufián at 44%, but remains largely unknown to 70% of respondents. Leaders from Podemos, Irene Montero and Ione Belarra, received the lowest ratings in the survey.
The survey indicates Rufián has broad appeal, being the highest-rated leader among voters from across the left, including those who support the Socialist Party. He consistently receives an acceptance rate of around 70% across these groups. When voters were asked about the qualities needed in a leader, Rufián was widely considered the most capable of uniting the left, a sentiment shared by all progressive voters.
The ERC spokesperson also performed strongly when voters were asked about preparedness for governing, though Sumar voters slightly favored Díaz in that category. Rufián was also seen as the most effective at attracting a wider electorate and mobilizing left-leaning voters. Other leaders trailed far behind in these assessments.
A unified candidacy could draw 36% of non-voters
The poll also explored the potential impact of a unified candidacy on voter turnout. According to the findings, a broad, single-branded left-wing coalition could mobilize voters and potentially draw 36% of those currently considering abstaining, not voting, or submitting a blank ballot. Such a coalition is projected to receive 17.7% of the vote in a general election, putting it close to the level of support currently enjoyed by VOX. However, the overall left-leaning bloc (42.1%) would still remain below the combined support of the right-wing parties PP and VOX, which together approach a majority with 48.9%.
75% of voters favor a broad unified candidacy
The 40dB poll also gauged how citizens believe the left should organize itself. A significant 75% of voters from parties on the left expressed a preference for a broad, unified candidacy. This sentiment was particularly strong among supporters of Sumar, EH Bildu, and Podemos, with over 45% advocating for a unified project in the upcoming general elections. Support was somewhat lower – around 30% – among voters for Esquerra and the BNG, who expressed more reservations.
The majority of respondents favored the inclusion of national-level formations like Izquierda Unida, Sumar, Más Madrid, and Podemos in any broad left-wing movement. While there was more support than opposition for including these groups, there were reservations about the participation of nationalist and regionalist parties. A majority of those surveyed opposed the inclusion of Esquerra, Catalunya en Comú, the BNG, and especially EH Bildu, in a potential coalition.
Progressive voters made it clear that parties should prioritize a formula that maximizes the number of seats won, even if it means relinquishing their individual branding. 60% of voters prioritized electoral gains over maintaining the distinct identity of each party. Voters from Podemos were particularly supportive of this approach, with 63.8% favoring prioritizing electoral success. Only 30% of left-leaning voters believe maintaining party identity should be prioritized, even if it reduces representation.
Only 27% of those surveyed believe that unity is achievable. Less than a third of the public considers it likely that a broad, unified left-wing candidacy will materialize. Voters aligned with the Socialist Party were the most optimistic, followed by those identifying with Podemos. However, among supporters of Sumar, Esquerra, EH Bildu, and the BNG, expectations fell below 45%.
