Jacek Pawlak, president of Toyota Motor Poland and Toyota Central Europe, believes the automotive industry is undergoing a technological revolution. He discussed where the industry is headed and what vehicles consumers can expect in the next five years.
For the past century, automotive technology remained relatively consistent, particularly concerning powertrains. “We had internal combustion engines, all with pistons, camshafts, and crankshafts, built in a similar way,” Pawlak explained. “Of course, they were constantly modernized – carburetors were replaced by fuel injectors, eight valves became sixteen, then turbochargers were added – but they were still powertrains built in a similar fashion.” However, in just a few years, a total revolution has taken hold. Increasingly, vehicles are incorporating electric components, starting with hybrids and plug-in solutions, and now fully electric cars are beginning to displace traditional engines. The decline of diesel, due to its high nitrogen oxide emissions, is already underway, as the industry moves toward less polluting powertrains.
Looking ahead, Pawlak anticipates a significant shift in the vehicles consumers will drive. “What kind of vehicle will I be driving in five years?” he posed rhetorically.
The pace of change is accelerating, with advancements that once took decades now becoming obsolete within a year. “The current sixth-generation hybrid is drastically different from the fifth, and the fifth from the fourth, and so on,” Pawlak noted. “We’re not just moving towards zero-emission vehicles, but even negative-emission vehicles – those that purify the air. That’s likely what you’ll be driving in five years.”
A key concern for many drivers regarding electrification is battery capacity and the resulting limited range of electric vehicles.
“Energy storage technology hasn’t developed as quickly as other areas,” Pawlak admitted. “Appear at how mobile phones looked twenty years ago compared to today. But when you compare current battery cells to those from twenty years ago, there aren’t huge differences. Batteries undoubtedly hold the key to breakthroughs. New solutions we’re working on – bipolar solid-state batteries – could completely change the perception of the usefulness of electric cars.”
He anticipates a significant leap in range. “When will I be able to travel 700–800 km on an 80% charged Toyota battery?”
“We plan to see the first solid-state batteries in 2027. They are twice as small, have four times the lifespan, significantly shorter charging times, and a much greater range.”
Batteries are a bottleneck, but they could be a game changer
Will consumers see these vehicles in showrooms next year?
“Remember that when we put an entire family in a car with such a large energy reservoir as batteries, we must be 100% sure it’s safe. We don’t yet know everything about such gigantic cells. Theoretically, they could overheat or catch fire. Many things remain unexplored. Before going into production, we must be sure our families are safe. Initially, these new cells will have much lower power and will be used in hybrids. Then they will be used in plug-in technology vehicles, and then we will start installing them in electric cars. Only these vehicles with solid-state batteries should have ranges of over 700 km and a charging time of 80% capacity in 15 minutes.”
8,000 chargers versus 165,000 in Norway. Poland is far behind.
Another bottleneck in the development of electromobility is the charging network. “Poland has a significant lag in the development of this infrastructure. In a country with a much smaller number of drivers, like Norway, 165,000 charging points have been installed. We have around 8,000.”
“A few years ago, Europe agreed to strive for zero emissions. Car manufacturers have invested huge amounts of money to achieve these goals. To create a new car or even a new platform, we must invest around 2 billion euros. Toyota has made a huge effort, offering customers 14 electric cars. The lack of adequate infrastructure means these cars aren’t selling well. As you noted, we have 8,000 chargers in Poland. Good benchmarks are countries like the Netherlands or Norway, where the charging network has over 160,000 points.”
The market has said “stop.” Customers don’t want EVs.
There is a clear revision of the assumptions of climate policy taking place in the EU. The ETS2 system, which further tightens emission standards and expands restrictions, including in the automotive industry, is unlikely to enter into force in its planned form. It also appears that the European Commission is backing away from the original, absolute ban on the sale of new cars with combustion engines from 2035. European manufacturers must revise their strategies, and the stock market valuations of companies such as Stellantis and Volvo have plummeted in recent weeks.
“Unfortunately, officials create programs that don’t align with customer expectations or technological developments. Meanwhile, the automotive industry is like a giant tanker. When we start turning the wheel, it still travels 20 nautical miles straight before it starts to turn. We create a new model in at least three to five years. So, if we’re saying today that we should have X electric models in five years, we had to start building them five years ago. The market has told officials to stop as Polish customers don’t want to buy electric cars.”
“We have electric cars in constant supply in virtually every segment, in every color imaginable. Their share of sales for the entire market is… 3%. Poles like to travel, go to the seaside to visit their aunt for the holidays, visit their grandmother in another city, and don’t want to drive with their hearts in their throats, fearing there won’t be a charger along the way. You can’t create regulations that completely ignore consumers.”
Toyota has maintained its position as the leading seller of new cars in the Polish market for six consecutive years (over 104,000 registered passenger and commercial vehicles), but Pawlak acknowledges it was a challenging year. “What don’t I understand?”
“It was the first year after the pandemic when all manufacturers had cars. When the semiconductor crisis broke out, people had to wait months for cars. Last year, the situation returned to normal, and it turned out that everyone had everything, any model in any color, practically immediately. This created price pressure, a return of promotions, and winter sales.”
Has a price war broken out between competing manufacturers?
“I wouldn’t call it a price war, but we definitely had to have a exceptionally attractive offer at all times to actually sell. If we didn’t, it immediately affected sales results. From the consumer’s point of view – fantastic. Wide selection, many attractive options and offers. From the manufacturer’s point of view… the bar has been raised. So, 2025 will be a very demanding year.”
When discussing conditions for 2026 with headquarters in Tokyo, what assumptions did Pawlak make regarding Toyota’s prospects in Poland?
“We always start by analyzing the macroeconomic environment. The Polish economy is developing very well, practically racing ahead. High GDP dynamics, EU funds flowing into Poland, whether from the RRF or soon from the SAFE fund. We also have a strong currency, low unemployment, and controlled inflation. Poles are returning to Poland from abroad because life is worse and earnings are lower elsewhere. From a macro perspective, we assumed it would be a good year.”
It’s also important to remember that the corporate car market accounts for 70% of new car sales. “Companies – small, medium, and large fleets – are buying. So, if businesses are actually developing and earning, they are buying cars.”
What are these customers looking for?
“For fleet customers, the cost of owning a car is the most important thing. Companies often have hundreds or thousands of cars, so every thousand zlotys reduction in the total cost of purchase and operation makes a difference of tens of millions of zlotys. Price is less important. Fleet managers count not only how much they buy for, but also how much they will sell the car for and how much they will have to pay for fuel, repairs, maintenance, tires, and so on.”
– to some extent – every driver should use such arithmetic?
“Most drivers don’t. However, if someone drives a lot, the cost of fuel over four or five years can turn out to be higher than the cost of the car itself. It’s also important to choose a vehicle that has a low difference between the purchase price and the so-called residual value, after which it can be resold.”
Will 2025 be a better year for sales than the previous one?
“It will be an even better year for the entire market. And for Toyota as well. We prepared very well. It will be a year of eight premieres. We will show eight completely new models. We started in January with the new Aygo model. Soon we will have more. There will be a new BZ4X in the touring version. We will also have a car in the C segment, the CKR Plus, and of course the new RAV4. New technologies always attract customers. The new Lexus RZ features a completely new steering system. Instead of a traditional steering gear – a Steer by Wire system, or fully electronic signal transmission, like in a computer game. It’s great to drive.”
What are the plans for 2026 in the more prestigious and expensive premium brand segment?
“The premium segment continues to grow and will continue to grow. Ten or fifteen years ago, to buy a top-shelf car, you had to spend a lot of money. Currently, most cars in this segment are sold on a long-term lease model, which doesn’t require any money down. For a monthly fee of 1,800 zlotys, you can have a luxury car. The barrier to entry into the premium segment has gone down. Last year, this segment grew in Poland by 8%, to 135,000 new cars. The ratio of the premium segment to the entire market in Poland is still lower than in Western European countries, so we have a lot of potential for further growth.”
Do you think Europe has, and if so, what is its response to the Chinese dragon that is devouring the Old Continent’s market? Will the offer from manufacturers from that country trigger another price war?
“Europe suddenly realized that a sizeable threat had emerged for its flagship industry, which is the automotive industry. After World War II, it was one of the cornerstones of economic reconstruction. This is not only car factories, but the entire ecosystem producing components, service networks, etc. It’s a large part of Europe’s GDP. And suddenly new players appear, who may pose a threat, who don’t necessarily compete fairly. Their cars are subsidized by the Chinese government. Nevertheless, I am convinced that if we compete on a healthy, fair basis, European brands will be able to cope.”
Finally, I must ask, what car does the head of Toyota Poland drive? I remember you were fascinated by the hydrogen-powered Mirai.
“I switched to an electric car. I’m currently driving the new Lexus with computer steering. I’m delighted with the new technology. You can very quickly receive used to such comfort.”
