Oil futures experienced a significant downturn on Monday, March 23, 2026, following comments from President Trump regarding ongoing discussions with Iran. The price drop occurred as Trump announced a postponement of potential military strikes against Iranian power infrastructure and indicated “Extremely GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE” conversations between the U.S. And Iran, according to reports.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell approximately 9% to trade near $89 per barrel, while the global benchmark, Brent crude, decreased by 11% to around $100 after earlier reaching a high of $113. This volatility underscores the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Trump stated to reporters that the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway that has been stalled due to the ongoing conflict, would reopen soon, contingent on the success of current peace talks. The potential reopening of this vital shipping lane contributed to the easing of tensions and subsequent price decline.
The shift in sentiment followed a weekend warning from Trump to Tehran, demanding the “FULL OPEN[ING], WITHOUT THREAT” of the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or face strikes on its power infrastructure. The earlier threat, coupled with recent attacks on regional energy infrastructure, had previously driven oil prices higher.
Rebecca Babin, CIBC Private Wealth senior energy trader, noted that “In the very near term, the market will continue to unwind risk premium, and that move may overshoot to the downside initially.” Yet, she also cautioned that “Until there is greater clarity on when vessels can safely transit the Strait again, the market is unlikely to fully price out disruption risk.”
Goldman Sachs analysts raised their Brent forecast for April from $85 to $115 on Sunday, citing a longer disruption supporting the risk premium. Despite this earlier forecast, the market reacted strongly to Trump’s comments, suggesting a rapid reassessment of risk.
Crude oil futures plunged Monday, with Brent settling below $100/bbl for the first time in nearly two weeks, after President Trump postponed threatened attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following “productive” talks with Iran, although Tehran denied it was in talks with the U.S. Seeking Alpha reported.
Oil prices dropped about 11% on Monday after U.S. President Trump said he would postpone any military strikes against Iranian power plants for five days and cited constructive talks to resolve hostilities in the Middle East, hours before a deadline that threatened to escalate the four-week-aged war. Reuters reported. Brent futures fell $12.25, or 10.9%, to settle at $99.94 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost $10.10, or 10.3%, to settle at $88.13.
Trump said on Monday there have been talks between the United States and Iran over the past day in which the two sides had “major points of agreement,” adding that a deal could be done soon to settle the war. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards had said they would attack Israel’s power plants and those supplying U.S. Bases across the Gulf region if the United States follows through with Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power network.
The war has already damaged major energy facilities in the Gulf and effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Two tankers bound for India sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday carrying liquefied petroleum gas loaded in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, although overall traffic through the critical waterway remained blocked.
Analysts have estimated a loss of 7 million to 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil production.
The rapid price swings in recent weeks – with Brent closing at its highest since July 2022 on Friday – pushed both crude benchmarks’ 30-day futures volatility to levels not seen since April 2022. U.S. Gasoline and diesel futures also dropped around 10% on Monday after reaching their highest levels since 2022 on Friday.
Reports also surfaced regarding potential insider trading activity prior to Trump’s announcement. Yahoo Finance and other outlets reported on scrutiny surrounding trading patterns that preceded the market reaction, raising questions about whether information was leaked before it became public.
