After nearly three weeks of conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump is facing a critical decision regarding the war in Iran: continue pursuing a regime change, as initially stated, or seek a way to de-escalate a conflict that is increasingly causing significant military, diplomatic, and economic repercussions. The situation underscores the complex challenges facing the Trump administration as the war continues.
Both paths forward carry risks for the United States and for Trump himself, risks that the U.S. Government has downplayed since the war began.
Initial Goal of Regime Change
Trump initiated the military action with a clear objective: to remove the current Iranian government. However, after 19 days of fighting, Brian Katulis of the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., argues that the U.S. Has only achieved what he describes as an “Ayatollah adjustment or Mullah modification.” “In doing so, we have only made those in power in Iran harder and more unpredictable,” Katulis said.
A premature declaration of victory and subsequent U.S. Withdrawal would leave Trump far short of his original goal and would not serve the security interests of the United States – or the world. The diplomatic, military, and economic damage already inflicted by the war adds to the pressure.
Difficulty Securing Allies for Hormuz Strait
The longer the war continues, the greater the damage becomes, and the higher the political and economic costs for the Trump administration, both domestically and internationally. What we have is particularly evident in Trump’s struggle to find allies to facilitate secure the Strait of Hormuz.
While the U.S. Is effectively pursuing its military objectives, weakening Iran’s ability to pose a threat in the region, the lack of a clear political plan for the aftermath raises concerns that these gains could be lost.
“Trump Seeking an Exit”
According to Katulis, the U.S. President would prefer to complete the war as soon as possible. Katulis believes Trump is likely “looking for an exit ramp that is sensible and realistic.” “But given that his goals have changed constantly since the beginning of the war to today, he doesn’t know where he actually wants to go.”
The Iranian regime, however, views the situation differently: if it survives, it can declare victory.
