Reports emerged on February 10, 2026, indicating Ukrainian counterattacks near the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, a contested area in eastern Ukraine. The claims were initially made by a prominent Russian military blogger with over 1.5 million followers on the Telegram messaging app, signaling a potential shift in battlefield dynamics.
“The enemy has launched counterattacks near Hulyaipole, where the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions meet, in an attempt to break through to the rear of the Russian armed forces,” the blogger wrote. The development comes amid ongoing conflict and heightened scrutiny of military movements in the region.
Uncertain Reports
Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø, a senior instructor at the Norwegian Military Academy, cautioned that the reports from Russian military bloggers should be treated with skepticism. “I assess the reports as uncertain, but it is more likely that these are local counterattacks rather than a large-scale offensive,” Ydstebø stated.
“Ukraine has carried out several local counterattacks to neutralize smaller Russian breakthroughs or intrusions in critical areas,” he added. The assessment suggests a pattern of localized engagements rather than a sweeping Ukrainian offensive.
Ydstebø explained that Ukraine currently lacks the freely available forces needed for a larger offensive and appears to be concentrating on defense and inflicting casualties on Russian forces.
The Zaporizhzhia region has seen particularly intense fighting recently. On February 3, 2026, Ukrainian air defense officials reported intercepting 71 missiles and 450 drones in a Russian attack.
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An Additional Benefit
Ydstebø outlined the criteria for determining whether a counteroffensive or counterattack could be considered successful. “If Ukraine can prevent the Russians from exploiting their gains with further advances, that is sufficient for now,” he said. “If, it forces the Russians to pour in soldiers and materiel that the Ukrainians can destroy continuously, that is an added benefit.”
He further explained that, in the broader context, Ukraine is focused on building fortifications and barriers in depth to more easily halt such attacks in the future.
How can Russian defensive capabilities be affected?
“We have seen that the Russians have repeatedly advanced too far into Ukrainian territory with forces they cannot supply or reinforce. In those cases, it is often only a matter of time before the Ukrainians bring up good forces and defeat the Russian spearheads,” Ydstebø said.
A larger Ukrainian offensive is unlikely in the near term, according to the lieutenant colonel.
“As long as the Russians are still strong enough to defend against a larger Ukrainian offensive, Ukraine is unlikely to launch a major attack. They appear to be fighting very economically with personnel and instead using machines, from drones to artillery, to save the people they have,” he added.
Probably Incorrect
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated on February 9, 2026, (one day before Operasjon Z’s report) that Russian reports of Ukrainian counteroffensives are likely inaccurate.
“Russian forces are likely falsely claiming that Ukrainian forces are conducting a ‘counteroffensive’ near the administrative border between Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to correct earlier false reports of alleged Russian advances in the area.”
Starlink Terminals
Do you think it is coincidental that This represents happening at the same time as Russia has lost access to Starlink?
“It is uncertain whether there is a connection or coincidence. The problem with Russian access to Starlink was that they could control long-range attack drones over Ukraine and attack moving targets, such as locomotives,” Ydstebø said.
Nettavisen wrote yesterday about SpaceX taking action against unauthorized Starlink terminals in Ukraine. This is now creating major problems for the Russian forces.
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“The enemy is making progress”
Another Russian military blogger reporting on Ukrainian attacks is the Telegram channel “Obsessed with War,” which has approximately 690,000 subscribers. The post was published at 09:02 on February 10, 2026:
“Fighting is taking place in the village of Ternovatoye, where the enemy has broken through. The situation remains tense; the enemy is advancing and making progress.”
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