European Intelligence Chiefs Pessimistic About Quick Ukraine Deal
Top intelligence officials from five European nations are doubtful a peace agreement to end Russia’s war against Ukraine will be reached this year, Reuters reports. The assessment comes despite assertions from U.S. President Donald Trump that American-mediated discussions are bringing a resolution closer.
According to four of the intelligence leaders, Russia is likely using negotiations with Washington as leverage to secure sanctions relief and new trade agreements. The latest round of talks took place this week in Geneva. One official described these discussions as a “negotiating theater.”
The differing perspectives highlight a growing disconnect between European capitals and the White House, with Kyiv accusing Trump’s administration of pushing for a peace deal by June, ahead of U.S. Midterm elections in November. Trump has stated his belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in reaching an agreement.
“Russia is not seeking a peace deal. It is continuing to pursue its strategic objectives, and those have not changed,” one of the European intelligence chiefs said. Those objectives reportedly include the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the transformation of Ukraine into a “neutral” state serving as a buffer zone with the West. Another official assessed that Russia “doesn’t desire or need a quick peace,” as its economy is “not on the verge of collapse.”
A third intelligence leader dismissed the idea that a Ukrainian concession of the Donetsk region would quickly lead to a peace agreement, arguing that even full control of the area wouldn’t allow Moscow to achieve its goal of overthrowing Kyiv’s pro-Western government.
The officials did not disclose the origins of their information, but noted their services rely on human sources, intercepted communications, and other intelligence-gathering methods. All affirmed that Russia remains a top intelligence priority.
One of the officials also expressed concern over the “incredibly limited” level of expertise in negotiating with Moscow within Western Europe, including on the European side, even as Zelenskyy advocates for a more active European role in the talks. The assessment underscores the challenges facing international efforts to de-escalate the conflict and locate a lasting resolution.
