Ukraine War: Expert Says Stronger Sanctions Could Force Putin to Negotiate Faster

According to Gabuyev, while U.S. President Donald Trump wants to end the war, he has so far exerted little pressure on the Kremlin.

“That’s why Russians believe they still have time and can continue to delay negotiations,” the expert argues. He says Putin continues to insist on “very far-reaching demands” from which he is unwilling to back down. An analyst recently made a similar point in an article for Die Welt.

The expert believes that to make the war unsustainable for Putin, economic sanctions must be tightened and existing punitive measures more rigorously enforced. Gabuyev cites as an example the need to prevent countries like China, India, and the United Arab Emirates from continuing to purchase Russian oil or circumventing sanctions.

“This needs to be done daily and very consistently [enforcing sanctions]. It’s not happening enough so far,” he adds.

“The Situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is Deteriorating”

The expert argues that this won’t put enough pressure on Putin for Russia to surrender within the next three to six months. However, he says that if Ukraine continues to receive support in the form of weapons and financial aid, that period could be shortened to less than 18 months.

Russia’s financial difficulties are underscored by plans from Russian authorities to raise the VAT tax next year. The rate is expected to increase to 22 percent. Analysts believe this will hinder businesses already struggling to operate in an increasingly difficult environment for Russia.

“The significant burden associated with paying additional tax obligations will fall on the population,” experts from the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences said in a report.

Meanwhile, German military expert Carlo Masala expressed less optimism than Gabuyev regarding Russia’s continued ability to wage war, in response to a question from Bild.

— I am very cautious about making forecasts that give specific timeframes. No one is currently able to say with certainty what financial and political reserves Russia may still — or want to — mobilize,” the expert said.

Masala also cautioned against “drawing hasty conclusions” about the moment when Moscow “will run out of money.” Much depends on factors “that we are not able to assess sufficiently from the outside.”

While reports are emerging of a sharp increase in Russia’s public debt, high inflation, and shortages of food and fuel, this has not yet had a major impact on the situation in Ukraine. “Unfortunately the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is deteriorating,” Gabuyev admits.

This assessment leads Putin to believe that time is on his side, as the conflict in Ukraine continues to reshape the geopolitical landscape.