Ukraine’s prospects for a resolution to the ongoing conflict with Russia appear increasingly dim, with a key Ukrainian parliamentary official stating that a 2026 end to hostilities is unrealistic. The assessment comes as fighting continues across eastern Ukraine and international efforts to broker a ceasefire have stalled.
We are sitting down at the table in a situation where Russia dictates the terms.
Roman Kosztenko, secretary of the Ukrainian parliament’s Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, made the assessment in an interview with RBC-Ukraine. He argued that Moscow is not seeking a genuine resolution but rather is using negotiations as a tactic to gain leverage.
According to Kosztenko, Russia’s demands extend beyond simply freezing the current front lines. Moscow is also seeking the cession of Ukrainian territory, as well as the imposition of its language and church. He stated that Russia is attempting to force concessions from Ukraine through attacks on its energy infrastructure. “I communicate with many people, and no one sees real results in the negotiations,” Kosztenko added.
He highlighted that Russian forces captured territory in the Donetsk region last year equivalent to just 16 percent of the area, while suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties. Kosztenko noted that, “at this rate, it would take them more than two years to occupy the entire Donetsk region, and that is if they have enough resources.”
They want to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea. The sooner they do, the better for them. That’s why they are already promising their soldiers apartments in Odesa or Mykolaiv.
Kosztenko firmly rejected the idea of territorial concessions, asserting, “Russia does not consider us brothers. They believe we are superfluous people on their land.” He stated that there is only one realistic scenario for ending the war: an “black swan” event – unexpected internal turmoil in Russia or losses so severe that they cannot recover. “It’s impossible to agree with Russia. It can only be stopped. Everything else is the path to recent escalation and an even bigger war,” the official concluded.
The comments underscore the deep distrust between Kyiv and Moscow and suggest that a negotiated settlement remains distant. The development underscores the continued challenges to achieving a lasting peace in the region.
