Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have once again yielded limited progress, highlighting the protracted and frustrating nature of efforts to end the nearly four-year conflict. The latest round of U.S.-brokered talks, held in Abu Dhabi, resulted in a prisoner exchange but fell short of a significant breakthrough, underscoring the deep divisions that remain between the two sides. The stalled negotiations approach as the war continues to reshape the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe.
The two-day trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates involved officials from Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the UAE, according to reports from Russian state media and a spokesperson for the Ukrainian delegation. Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov stated on social media that Kyiv’s team was seeking “to achieve a just and lasting peace.”
U.S. President Donald Trump dispatched special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to assist in the negotiations, according to the AFP news agency. Still, the talks were overshadowed by accusations from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Russia was violating an agreement brokered by Trump to cease attacks on energy facilities.
The Kremlin’s continued hardline rhetoric, coupled with a recent barrage of Russian drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy grid, further complicated the prospects for progress. These attacks, which caused widespread power outages and heating disruptions amid freezing temperatures, occurred in the lead-up to the Abu Dhabi discussions.
The complexity of securing a resolution is further complicated by shifting perspectives on the conflict. According to analysis, the United States appears to be acknowledging the reality of a potential Russian victory, a position that contrasts with the continued support for Ukraine’s war effort from many European nations.
Just days before the talks began, the European Union announced a deal to provide Ukraine with 90 billion euros in loans, with 60 billion euros earmarked for weapons. Despite this financial commitment, the EU has rejected Zelenskyy’s calls for a fast-track path to membership, with officials citing a lengthy process that could take years or even decades.
Ukrainian officials are increasingly aware that membership in NATO is unlikely, and harbor similar doubts about their prospects for joining the EU. One Polish diplomat reportedly suggested that Ukraine’s struggle is not solely its own, a sentiment that reflects a broader sense of disillusionment with the ongoing conflict.
Concerns are also growing over a pattern of alleged Ukrainian actions that undermine the possibility of a negotiated settlement. Reports indicate that Ukraine’s intelligence agency, led by Kyrylo Budanov, has admitted to multiple attempts to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as attacks on Russian infrastructure, including a reported drone strike on Putin’s Valdai residence and an attempt on the life of General Vladimir Alekseev, a high-ranking GRU official. Alekseev was shot and remains hospitalized in critical condition.
This situation presents a significant challenge to the negotiation process, as Igor Kostyukov, the head of the GRU and a key Russian negotiator, is now tasked with engaging in talks with a party allegedly responsible for targeting his subordinates and his superior.
The length of the conflict – now exceeding the duration of Russia’s involvement in World War I and approaching the length of the Russian Civil War – is reportedly creating pressure on Putin to seek a resolution, but also potentially leading to a more assertive stance towards Ukraine. The development underscores the delicate balance between the desire for peace and the potential for escalation.
However, Russia also faces constraints. A more forceful approach risks further alienating the Ukrainian population and creating a long-term insurgency in any territory it might occupy. This scenario echoes historical precedents, including Carl Schmitt’s analysis of partisan warfare and Lenin’s reliance on guerilla tactics during the Russian Civil War.
As one analyst noted, the current situation reflects a state of “the old dying and the new cannot be born,” making it easier to continue the war than to end it. The fate of Ukraine, once a tragedy primarily for Ukrainians, is increasingly becoming a broader European crisis, raising the specter of further instability and uncertainty.
