Six accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket reportedly earned approximately $1.2 million, or Rp 20.16 billion (exchange rate of Rp 16,800/USD), after correctly betting on a U.S. Strike against Iran in late February.
The findings have sparked suspicion that individuals with inside information may have exploited it for profit related to the geopolitical event.
According to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps SA, the six accounts were newly created last month and placed bets exclusively on the timing of a U.S. Attack on Iran. These bets were placed just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran, the Iranian capital.
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As reported by Yahoo Finance, citing Bloomberg on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, one account initially made an incorrect prediction regarding the timing of the strike. However, a subsequent bet of more than $26,000 that the U.S. Would strike on Saturday generated a profit exceeding $174,000.
This case draws further scrutiny to Polymarket, which previously faced attention after an anonymous account reportedly earned over $400,000 from bets related to the Trump administration’s involvement in Venezuela and the ousting of President Nicolás Maduro. These findings prompted outrage from several U.S. Lawmakers.
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy deemed the practice unacceptable if it remains legal, stating, “People around Trump profited from war and death. I will soon introduce legislation to ban this.”
Beyond these suspicious accounts, numerous other users also placed bets related to the Iran conflict, with trading volume on a contract predicting the timing of a U.S. Strike reaching nearly $90 million.
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman explained that prediction markets allow individuals to directly bet on geopolitical events, creating the potential for those with early information to gain a significant advantage. The situation is further complicated by Polymarket’s allowance of anonymous trading using cryptocurrencies.
Requiring only a crypto wallet for transactions makes it difficult to trace trades based on insider information.
(ily/hns)
