As the action heats up at the Milan-Cortina Games, climate change casts a long shadow over the future of the Winter Olympics. Rising temperatures are challenging the format, schedule, and even the viability of host countries. Could the lower-impact 2038 bid from Switzerland offer a path forward?
The opening of the 2026 Winter Games was greeted by significant snowfall in Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy, but temperatures are already rising and the snow is melting daily. Since the last Games in Cortina in 1956, average February temperatures have increased by 3.6°C, and above-average temperatures are forecast for the remainder of the competition.
Scientists generally predict a decrease in the number of reliable host countries for the Winter Games. A 2024 study forecasts that of the 93 mountain locations currently capable of hosting elite winter sports, only around 30 might remain by the 2080s, depending on global emissions trends. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) is prioritizing venues with at least 80% existing infrastructure, further limiting potential sites.
The IOC, headquartered in Switzerland, is now considering distributing the Games across a small, permanent group of suitable locations and scheduling events earlier in the season. March is becoming too warm to host the Paralympic Games, which traditionally follow the Winter Olympics.
Mega-events like the Olympic Games also have a considerable carbon footprint, largely due to construction and travel. A new Swiss study estimates that the Games held between 2012 and 2024 emitted between 1.59 and 4.5 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
Winter Games generally emit less than Summer Games – between 1 and 1.5 million tonnes of CO₂ – due to fewer athletes, smaller venues, and lower operational demands. However, even these smaller events can have a disproportionately high carbon intensity relative to their economic scale.
As the IOC considers major reforms to reduce the Olympic Games’ carbon footprint, Switzerland is proposing a more sustainable Olympic model, slated to be hosted in the country in 2038.
The IOC Wants Games “As Sustainable As Possible”
“For each edition of the Olympic Games, our goal is to put on an event as sustainable as possible, reducing its footprint while meeting the social, environmental, and economic needs of the host region,” says Julie Duffus, the IOC’s Head of Sustainability.
She highlights that stricter rules have been in place for host cities since 2020, carbon accounting is mandatory, and the Host City Contract requires alignment with the Paris Agreement. Julie Duffus asserts these examples demonstrate the IOC takes sustainability and climate change “extremely seriously.” She added that the IOC also prioritizes existing or temporary venues, climate-reliable locations, reduced construction, renewable energy, and regional-scale hosting models.
However, Swiss scientists argue there remains a “persistent governance gap”: the IOC does not require emissions estimates during the bidding process nor independent verification afterward. This is particularly problematic for Winter Games, as previous reports lacked consistency, complicating the establishment of a baseline or credible targets, explains researcher David Gogishvili, based in Lausanne.
David Gogishvili and his colleague Martin Müller propose a clearer path. Their study outlines a roadmap to reduce Olympic emissions by 48% by 2030 and 84% by 2050, aligning with the Paris Agreement. It calls for an end to mega-events and a focus on regional audiences to reduce long-distance air travel.
“The most difficult thing for the IOC and other major organizers to accept is that these mega-events – by their size, scale, and number of athletes – ignore the reality of the climate crisis we are living in,” says David Gogishvili.
The Start of a New Era with Milan-Cortina?
One of the IOC’s strategies for greater sustainability is to host Games across wider regions, making greater use of existing facilities. Spread across three hubs – Milan, Cortina, and Livigno – with only two new permanent venues, Milan-Cortina is the first large-scale test. The next two Winter Games, in the French Alps in 2030 and in Utah (USA) in 2034, will also be geographically dispersed.
Italy is reusing equipment from Paris 2024 and claims 85% of its infrastructure is existing or temporary. Venues are powered by renewable energy, and food surpluses are donated.
But critics point to some contradictions. Despite sustainability promises, the Milan-Cortina Games still required several new accommodation facilities, and hundreds of trees were felled to make way for Cortina’s new bobsleigh track. The production of 2.4 million cubic meters of artificial snow also requires water, new reservoirs, and expensive technology.
Large infrastructure projects, including road upgrades, have also been launched in northern Italy in anticipation of the Games. The bill has risen from €1.5 billion to €5.7 billion. Many projects were carried out without environmental assessments, “despite sustainability commitments and the promise not to burden public finances,” notes CIPRA, the International Commission for the Protection of the Alps.
According to estimates from an activist organization, Milan-Cortina is expected to generate around 930,000 tonnes of emissions, the largest portion – 410,000 tonnes – coming from spectator travel. This is lower than PyeongChang in 2018 (1.64 million tonnes) but remains significant, roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of a European city of around 200,000 inhabitants.
Activists also point to sponsorship deals with oil and gas producer Eni, automaker Stellantis, and airline ITA Airways, which they say will generate an additional 1.3 million tonnes of carbon emissions. Greenpeace protested in Milan during the arrival of the Olympic flame, urging the organizing committee to cut ties with Eni. The company, for its part, says it recognizes the urgency of climate change and the energy transition.
IOC President Kirsty Coventry acknowledged that the organization needs to “do better” on climate change, after receiving a petition with 21,000 signatures calling for a ban on sponsors active in fossil fuels.
Can Switzerland Host Sustainable Games?
Switzerland is watching the situation closely. The IOC has entered into a “privileged dialogue” with the Alpine nation to host the 2038 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Switzerland 2038 proposes competitions throughout the country, but without building new venues and relying heavily on public transport. Ten cantons and 14 municipalities support the project, which envisions around 120 competitions across ten locations. Lausanne could host the opening ceremony and Bern the closing ceremony. The federal government also supports the bid and has launched consultations on funding of up to 200 million francs. Most of the total budget, estimated at 2.2 billion francs, would come from private partners and donors.
Switzerland last hosted the Games in 1948. Parliament is expected to decide on the 2038 bid later this year. A referendum on the issue is possible if opponents of the project collect enough signatures. Previously, several Swiss candidatures, such as those of St. Moritz-Davos for 2022 and Valais for 2026, failed at the ballot box.
There is currently no organized opposition to the 2038 bid. Previous Swiss candidatures had failed by overwhelming majorities due to costs and financial risks; environmental concerns were then secondary.
“We are fully aware that, like any major international event, the Games have an environmental impact, even without new construction. That is why Switzerland 2038 plans to set clear, measurable, and verifiable targets for reducing emissions,” assures Frédéric Favre, Director of Switzerland 2038. The targets will focus primarily on mobility, energy, materials, and temporary structures.
Other measures aim to reduce the carbon footprint. Access to public transport could be included in the ticket price, and priority could be given to local audiences.
“Accountability Is Essential”
Environmental groups, including Pro Natura and WWF, have participated in the consultations.
But skepticism remains. Kaspar Schuler, a former director of CIPRA, argues that the Olympic Games inevitably put infrastructure under strain. He cites the example of Milan-Cortina 2026, where promises were only half-heartedly kept: 57% of projects could not be completed before the Games, and costs have reached €7 billion. “Why would it be any different in Switzerland?” he asks.
For David Gogishvili, Switzerland 2038 appears to tick the right boxes in terms of sustainability. He stresses, however, that accountability is essential. “Things can be stated, but the important thing is that this information is based on science, is verified, and becomes binding,” he says.
International travel could be a crucial test. If a large number of fans continue to accept long-haul flights to Switzerland in 2038, the organizing committee risks failing to meet its climate targets. This was the case for Paris 2024, where 53% of the carbon footprint resulted from travel.
Edited and fact-checked by Gabe Bullard/Veronica De Vore / translated from English by Pauline Turuban using machine translation.
