A fresh technical report from the Valle del Cauca Department of Health indicates that individuals enrolled in Nueva EPS health insurance in the department have experienced higher mortality rates since the start of institutional challenges reported in July 2025. The analysis, dated February 2026 and prepared by departmental health secretary María Cristina Lesmes Duque, suggests a concerning disparity compared to other health insurance providers, particularly in causes of death linked to consistent and timely healthcare access. This data highlights the potential impact of healthcare system disruptions on patient outcomes and underscores the importance of stable access to care.
READ ALSO
The report evaluated excess mortality among Nueva EPS enrollees over a three-year period, from January 2023 to January 2026. Researchers compared a 30-month baseline period with a seven-month period marked by deepening institutional issues within the health insurer. The study included 97,095 non-fetal deaths of residents in Valle del Cauca, officially recorded in the RUAF database, excluding deaths from external causes like accidents or homicides.
Crisis of Nueva EPS in Valle del Cauca would be reflected in an increase in preventable deaths. Photo:MAURICIO MORENO
According to the report, the central hypothesis was that systemic failures in Nueva EPS operations – such as denial of authorizations, medication shortages, treatment interruptions, and barriers to access – could be associated with an increase in preventable mortality among its enrollees. To investigate this, researchers analyzed monthly trends in deaths and compared them to other insurers operating in the department.
The results showed that, during the baseline period, the average monthly number of deaths was 619. However, during the crisis period, spanning late 2025 and early 2026, peaks exceeding 700 deaths were recorded, and in some months, numbers approached 800. When comparing the increase between the baseline and the critical period, Nueva EPS showed a 14.1% increase in mortality, while other EPS providers registered an increase of 9.6%. This difference represents a 4.5 percentage point gap.
Report on mortality of Nueva EPS affiliates in Valle del Cauca. Photo:Archivo particular
The report further examined deaths considered “sensitive to care,” meaning those directly affected by interruptions in treatment, lack of medication, or delays in medical attention. Within this group, the largest relative increase was observed in endocrine and metabolic diseases, particularly diabetes, with a 50.1% increase in the average monthly number of deaths, translating to an estimated excess of 46 deaths during the crisis period.
READ ALSO
Transmissible diseases – such as HIV, tuberculosis, and pneumonia – also showed a significant increase: 10% higher than the baseline, with an estimated excess of 48 cases, the largest increase in absolute terms. Chronic respiratory diseases, such as COPD and asthma, increased by 12.8% and 19 additional deaths, and neurological diseases, such as epilepsy and Parkinson’s, registered an increase of 17.5%, equivalent to 21 more deaths. In total, causes sensitive to care accumulated an estimated excess of 134 deaths.
The territorial analysis revealed that the impact was not uniform. Cali concentrated the largest excess mortality, with 71 additional deaths and a 10.5% increase, primarily due to respiratory causes, which grew by 22%. Palmira registered an increase of 16.7% and 36 excess deaths, with a 60% increase in respiratory causes. Cartago presented one of the highest percentage changes, with a 29% increase and 34 additional deaths, while respiratory causes soared by 140%. Tuluá and Sevilla also showed significant increases, especially associated with respiratory diseases. Collectively, the ten municipalities with the greatest impact concentrated an estimated excess of 176 deaths.
Report on mortality of Nueva EPS affiliates in Valle del Cauca. Photo:Archivo particular
The report emphasizes that the consistency of the increase in respiratory causes in almost all municipalities analyzed suggests possible interruptions in care, such as failures in the supply of inhalers, home oxygen, timely access to nebulization, and hospitalization. These findings could inform targeted interventions to improve respiratory care access in the region.
Another relevant finding relates to oncology care. The document identifies six types of cancer in which mortality among Nueva EPS enrollees increased during the crisis period, while no such behavior was observed in other EPS providers. The most marked case was ovarian cancer, which registered a 37% increase in Nueva EPS, in contrast to a 32% reduction in other insurers. Breast cancer also showed a statistically significant differential, with a p-value of 0.043.
READ ALSO
the report concludes that the data from RUAF demonstrates a differential deterioration in Nueva EPS mortality indicators in Valle del Cauca during the crisis period, particularly in medical causes associated with continuity of care. While the document is limited to statistical analysis, the results reinforce concerns about the impact that failures in service delivery can have on the health and survival of enrollees.
EDWIN CAICEDO
Environmental and Health Journalist
@CaicedoUcros
