Five Iranian Kurdish parties have formed an alliance despite historical rivalries, a move signaling a potential shift in the dynamics of the ongoing conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The coalition, known as the “Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan” (CPFIK), includes the Democratic Party of Kurdistan-Iran (DPKI) and the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), which is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The development comes after visible weakening of the Iranian government following the suppression of January protests.
While the alliance presents a united front, experts caution that deep-seated conflicts remain among the Iranian Kurdish groups. “Despite all the unity that is now being invoked, there are very many far-reaching conflicts between the Iranian Kurdish groups,” noted Iran expert Walter Posch, according to ORF.at.
Against the Regime and For Autonomy
Most minority groups in Iran oppose the Islamic Republic, and Kurds actively participated in the 1979 revolution only to see their aspirations for autonomy brutally suppressed by the new regime under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, mirroring the repression under the Shah.
According to reports, Iranian Kurds generally desire a systemic change and a federal system similar to that of Iraq.
“Betrayed Multiple Times by the US”
Currently, conditions for armed conflict appear more favorable than they have in decades: the regime is internally weakened and has been subjected to heavy attacks from the United States and Israel.
Iranian Kurds believe a military intervention could be a “historic opportunity,” but they are wary of relying on the United States, having felt “betrayed multiple times” by various US administrations in the past – most recently in January in Rojava, the Kurdish name for the self-administration in North and East Syria. Washington had previously supported Syrian Kurds in their fight against the Islamic State (IS) before abandoning them, leading to the recapture of Kurdish territories by the Syrian government.
The abandonment of support for Syrian Kurds by the US, and the subsequent takeover of Kurdish areas, has created a real “dilemma” for Iranian Kurds. Sources indicate that Kurdish militias are currently holding back, recognizing that engaging in conflict would be a “high-risk game.” They as well fear that military action could reinforce the regime’s narrative that Kurds threaten national unity, potentially alienating other Iranian opposition groups. This risk was also highlighted by Posch.
Despite the hesitation, Kurdish militias are believed to be prepared to seize power in Kurdish-populated areas along the borders with Iraq and Turkey, potentially with US support. However, this would require further destabilization of the regime.
Iranian Kurds are reluctant to embark on a risky venture, fearing that if the US were to abandon them, it could lead to a massacre of the Kurdish civilian population.
Posch: Majority Against Fighting
Posch does not rule out the possibility of Iranian Kurdish militias going to war “almost” with the US. However, he believes a majority of the Iranian Kurdish population opposes such a move. He also questions whether the “Syrian model” of Kurdish-US cooperation – relying on US air support and arms deliveries – is even applicable in the mountainous terrain of western Iran. Posch points out that Iranian defense planning has long anticipated a potential Kurdish uprising, and Tehran is prepared for it.
Risk of Proxy War in Iraq
Iraqi Kurds, who possess larger fighting forces, have made it clear they will not participate in any potential conflict against the Iranian regime. This is not out of fear of Tehran, but rather to avoid triggering a proxy war within Iraq between Kurdish militias and the Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite Popular Mobilization Units, known as al-Hashd al-Shaabi, which have already attacked Kurdish targets as a warning.
Syrian Scenario on Turkish Border
There are also concerns about a potential scenario similar to Syria unfolding on the Iranian-Turkish border. In Syria, Ankara built up its own militias to counter the Kurds and was actively involved on Syrian soil with its own army. A similar situation could arise in Iran if PJAK, the sister party of the PKK, were to gain power in the northwestern border region where it enjoys significant support.
There, Schmidinger fears, Ankara could build up militias among the large Azeri minority, who speak a language closely related to Turkish. Generally, Schmidinger warned that a collapse scenario in Iran, given the large number of strong minorities, would be much larger than in Syria.
Tricky Balancing Act
Former US President Trump initially expressed “full” support for an offensive by Iranian Kurdish militias against the government in Tehran, but reversed his position on Saturday. He stated that Kurdish fighters in the region were ready, but he told them he did not seek that, adding that the US has a “very friendly relationship” with the Kurds but does not want to “make the war more complicated than it already is.”
The Iranian Kurds remain in a difficult position: to seize a potentially historic opportunity or to miss it, while avoiding a massacre and potential regional upheaval with consequences for Kurds in Iraq and Turkey.
