São Paulo, Brazil – Brazilian stocks rose on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, driven by positive sentiment from global markets despite Iran’s rejection of a U.S. Ceasefire proposal. The Ibovespa index climbed 1.36% to 184,998 points as of 11:10 AM local time, mirroring optimism surrounding potential progress in de-escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The advance comes as investors also digest a new AtlasIntel poll indicating a tight race between current President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff for this year’s presidential elections. According to the survey, Bolsonaro currently holds 47.6% of voter intentions, while Lula has 46.6%.
The United States recently presented a 15-point peace proposal to Iran, aiming to address the ongoing conflict with Israel and regional allies. However, Tehran has dismissed the initiative. “An initiative by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, to start indirect talks is illogical and unfeasible at this stage of the conflict,” the semi-official Fars news agency reported, citing unnamed sources.
Iran reportedly remains focused on achieving its objectives and does not notice a ceasefire as viable at this time. The global concern centers on potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply. Restrictions to this vital shipping lane have fueled fears of a global inflation and food scarcity crisis.
Oil prices reacted sharply to the developments, with Brent crude falling 4.27% to $99.72 per barrel as of 11:10 AM. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.64% at the same time. The Brazilian commercial dollar also saw a slight decrease, falling 0.24% to R$ 5.24.
These market movements follow a period of volatility linked to geopolitical tensions. On Monday, March 23, 2026, the Ibovespa surged 3.24% to close at 181,932 points after President Trump suspended potential attacks on Iranian energy facilities, citing productive conversations between the two countries. The Brent crude price dropped 11.12% to $99.72 per barrel on that day, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 9.70% to $88.70 per barrel.
The ETF representing Brazilian stocks in New York, EWZ, rose 1.75% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, signaling continued positive momentum. Investors appear to be prioritizing the potential for de-escalation, despite Iran’s denial of direct or indirect negotiations. Recent trading activity has raised questions, with the CNBC reporting atypical trading volumes in oil futures and U.S. Futures shortly before Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause in potential strikes against Iran. The volume in oil futures alone was estimated at over $580 million, according to the Financial Times, raising concerns about potential insider trading.
