Fox Sports analyzes each AFL club’s benchmark for success in the 2026 season, factoring in recent trades, draft results, and overall team trajectory. The assessment sets a “pass mark” – a realistic goal for each team ranging from simply improving their win count to contending for a premiership – offering a data-driven outlook for the year ahead as teams prepare for the new season.
For many, a season’s success is defined simply: win it all, or it’s all for naught. But the reality of professional sports is far more nuanced. Numerous factors shape expectations for each team, from roster construction and player acquisitions to recent on-field performance. With that in mind, we’re taking an early look at each AFL club and setting a benchmark for a successful 2026 season.
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ADELAIDE CROWS
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
The Adelaide Crows experienced a dramatic shift in fortunes last season, rising to prominence before a tough playoff exit. Consecutive losses ended their first finals campaign in eight years, revealing both their potential and the work still needed to contend for a premiership. Securing a double chance and winning a qualifying final would represent significant progress for the Crows in 2026. Falling short of that would mean navigating a more challenging path, requiring at least one, if not two, September victories to return to the final four for the first time since 2017. With the addition of Callum Ah Chee, acquired for free, and promising young talent emerging, success in the playoffs is a must for Matthew Nicks’ side.
Draftee teary after missing big moment! | 01:24
BRISBANE LIONS
Pass mark: Make it to the grand final
The Brisbane Lions are poised to continue their dominance, boasting a star-studded roster and a core of exciting young players. The team has only gotten stronger in the offseason, adding Sam Draper as their first-choice ruckman, Oscar Allen to bolster their forward line, and top draft pick Dan Annable to an already potent midfield. With organic improvement expected from players like Jaspa Fletcher, Darcy Wilmot, and the Ashcroft brothers, the Lions are a strong contender to reach their third consecutive premiership. A return to the grand final in 2026 is the clear expectation for Chris Fagan’s squad, who have secured eight-straight finals appearances.
CARLTON
Pass mark: Make it to wildcard weekend
The Carlton Blues face a significant rebuild after losing key players Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, and Charlie Curnow in the offseason. Despite these departures, Michael Voss’s team has improved its depth, adding Ben Ainsworth, Campbell Chesser, Ollie Florent, Will Hayward, and Liam Reidy through trades. The acquisition of draft gun Harry Dean also provides a boost. A healthy on-ball brigade, including the addition of top 2024 draftee Jagga Smith returning from an ACL injury, gives the Blues a foundation to build upon. A strong response after a disappointing 2025 is crucial, with a spot in the AFL’s inaugural wildcard weekend as a realistic goal.
PILE ON! Father-son draftee swarmed | 05:07
COLLINGWOOD
Pass mark: Make it to the grand final
Collingwood remains a force to be reckoned with, boasting a wealth of September experience. Despite falling just short in last year’s grand final, the Magpies are expected to contend again in 2026. The departure of Brody Mihocek will be felt, but the acquisition of Jack Buller offers a promising replacement. With a core group still in their prime, Craig McRae’s team is poised to make another deep playoff run. Reaching the grand final once again is the benchmark for success.
ESSENDON
Pass mark: Win 10 or more games
The Bombers are hoping for a healthier and more productive season in 2026. Injuries decimated their lineup last year, making it difficult to assess their true potential. At full strength, Essendon possesses a threatening roster, and the addition of three first-round draft picks further strengthens their squad. Reaching 10 wins and demonstrating consistent improvement are the primary goals for Brad Scott’s team.
Merrett addresses return to Dons | 07:35
FREMANTLE
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
The Dockers are building a strong foundation for sustained success. Adding Mason Cox and Judd McVee in the offseason further strengthens their roster. A core group of emerging talents, including Caleb Serong, Andy Brayshaw, and Josh Treacy, provides a dynamic blend of skill and athleticism. After a strong 2025 campaign, Fremantle will be expected to contend for a preliminary final berth in 2026.
GEELONG CATS
Pass mark: Make it to the grand final
Despite a heartbreaking grand final loss, Geelong remains a premiership contender. The addition of James Worpel bolsters their midfield, while the continued development of young players Shannon Neale and Connor O’Sullivan adds depth to the roster. With Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron still performing at a high level, the Cats are well-positioned to make another run at the championship. A return to the grand final is the expectation for Chris Scott’s team.
Best Moments from Day 2 of the AFL Draft | 11:32
GOLD COAST SUNS
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
The Suns broke through in 2025, securing a finals berth and demonstrating their potential. The acquisition of Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan significantly elevates their roster. With a strong core of young talent and a proven coaching staff, the Suns are poised to contend for a premiership. Reaching a preliminary final is the next step in their progression.
GWS GIANTS
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
The Giants have consistently been in premiership contention, but have yet to translate that potential into championship success. A disappointing playoff exit last year highlighted the need for improvement. Adam Kingsley’s team must find a way to perform at their best when it matters most. Reaching a preliminary final is the minimum expectation for the Giants in 2026.
HAWTHORN
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
After a breakout season, Hawthorn is expected to continue its upward trajectory. The team’s strong performance in the playoffs last year demonstrated their potential. While the loss of James Worpel is a setback, the Hawks still possess a talented roster capable of contending for a premiership. A return to the preliminary final is a realistic goal for Sam Mitchell’s team.
MELBOURNE
Pass mark: Win 10 or more games
The Demons are undergoing a significant rebuild under new coach Steven King. The departures of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver create challenges, but the team has added promising players through trades and the draft. Reaching 10 wins and demonstrating improvement are the primary objectives for Melbourne in 2026.
“She might not be at school on Monday” | 03:38
NORTH MELBOURNE
Pass mark: Avoid the bottom four
The Kangaroos are entering a crucial phase in their rebuild under Alastair Clarkson. After several seasons at the bottom of the ladder, North Melbourne needs to demonstrate progress. Avoiding a bottom-four finish is the primary goal for 2026. Continued development from young players like Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw will be key to their success.
Roos dominate Lions to win by 40 | 02:43
PORT ADELAIDE
Pass mark: Make it to wildcard weekend
The Power are looking to build on their recent success. The addition of key players like Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan strengthens their roster. A softer schedule should also benefit their chances of making the playoffs. Securing a spot in the wildcard weekend is a realistic goal for Port Adelaide in 2026.
RICHMOND
Pass mark: Win eight games
The Tigers are hoping to continue their resurgence under Adem Yze. The team showed resilience last season despite facing numerous challenges. The addition of several new players and the development of young talent provide optimism for the future. Winning eight games and demonstrating consistent improvement are the targets for Richmond in 2026.
‘You’re still crying!’: Grlj breaks down | 02:04
ST KILDA
Pass mark: Make it to the finals
The Saints have made significant additions to their roster, acquiring Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, and Sam Flanders. Retaining Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Rowan Marshall further strengthens their core group. After a disappointing recent stretch, St Kilda is aiming to return to the playoffs in 2026. A top-eight finish is the expectation for Ross Lyon’s team.
SYDNEY SWANS
Pass mark: Finish in the top four
The Swans are poised to contend for a premiership. The acquisition of Charlie Curnow adds a dynamic element to their forward line. With a strong core of players still intact and a proven coaching staff, Sydney is expected to finish among the top four teams in the league. A deep playoff run is the ultimate goal for the Swans in 2026.
WEST COAST EAGLES
Pass mark: Win four games
The Eagles are embarking on a rebuild, but have added promising players through trades and the draft. The acquisition of Brandon Starcevich, Tylar Young, and Deven Robertson provides experience and skill. The development of young talents like Harley Reid and Reuben Ginbey will be crucial to their progress. Winning four games is a realistic goal for West Coast in 2026.
Eagles select Duursma, Duff-Tytler | 02:50
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Pass mark: Win a final
The Bulldogs are expected to contend for a championship. With a
