NASA has definitively ruled out any possibility of asteroid “2024 YR4” impacting the Moon in 2032, according to new observations from the James Webb Space Telescope.
Initial calculations of the asteroid’s orbital path suggested a small chance of impact – around 4.3% – but improved readings from the James Webb Space Telescope, collected in February, confirm the asteroid will pass a safe distance of 13,200 miles from the lunar surface on December 22, 2032.
The asteroid, estimated to be about 200 feet in diameter (roughly the size of a 15-story building), was first discovered in late 2024 by the Early Warning System in Chile. This discovery highlights the ongoing efforts to monitor near-Earth objects and assess potential risks.
Early in 2025, there were brief concerns about a potential Earth impact, but that scenario was quickly dismissed. Uncertainty regarding a lunar impact, however, persisted for a longer period. The ability to refine orbital predictions demonstrates the importance of advanced telescope technology in planetary defense.
Since spring 2025, the asteroid had become too faint to observe until the James Webb Space Telescope’s camera detected it last month, ultimately confirming its safe trajectory. This observation underscores the capabilities of the James Webb Space Telescope in tracking faint, distant objects.
It’s not uncommon for initial predictions of a near-Earth object’s trajectory to be inaccurate enough to suggest a potential impact. Subsequent studies typically rule out such collisions.
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