Western nations are reportedly hoping to weaken ties between Minsk and Moscow within the framework of their union state and to complicate Russia’s ability to achieve its military objectives in Ukraine, according to intelligence agencies cited by The Moscow Times.
These assessments from Russian intelligence come as the White House increasingly cooperates with Belarusian authorities, easing sanctions in exchange for the release of political prisoners – a move aimed at distancing Minsk from Moscow’s orbit, according to reports.
Russia Explains Why Mass Protests May Not Return to Belarus
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) asserts that Belarusians are unlikely to engage in the large-scale protests that swept the country following the 2020 presidential election, in which Alexander Lukashenko defeated Svetlana Tikhanouskaya, who was at the time imprisoned.
“Belarusian society, having overcome the internal political crisis of 2020, which was instigated by hostile external forces, has received a good ‘vaccination’ against attempts to destabilize the situation in the country,” the SVR stated.
In total, more than 4,700 criminal cases were initiated against participants in the 2020 demonstrations in Belarus, and the United Nations reported hundreds of cases of torture of detainees.
The Percentage Points “Added”
In January 2025, authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko was “re-elected” to a seventh term, allegedly receiving 86.82% of the vote, according to the Belarusian Central Election Commission. This marked a latest record in his 30 years in power. His previous highest “result” was 83.4%.
Western countries did not recognize the 2015 election, calling it a sham. At the same time, the country restricted access to the internet in an attempt to avoid civil unrest. Lukashenko himself stated after the 2020 events that he adhered to such policies so that “people would not open their mouths.”
The situation highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in Eastern Europe, as Russia and Belarus continue to strengthen their alliance amidst ongoing international scrutiny. The developments could influence future diplomatic talks and regional stability.
