A significant temperature split is affecting the Benelux region, wiht conditions varying from wintry precipitation in the north to unseasonably mild temperatures reaching 10°C in the south. Forecasts indicate this pattern will persist in the coming days, creating challenges for transportation and daily life across the Low Countries. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the interplay between Arctic and maritime air masses, and also a potentially impactful stratospheric warming event that could influence weather patterns for weeks to come.
A stark temperature contrast has been observed across the Benelux region in recent days, with conditions ranging from snowfall and sub-freezing temperatures in the north to milder temperatures around 10 degrees Celsius in the south. This pattern is expected to continue in the coming days, creating a complex weather outlook, particularly for the Netherlands.
The fluctuating conditions highlight the challenges of forecasting in a region influenced by both Arctic and maritime air masses, a dynamic that is increasingly common as global weather patterns shift. The situation is being closely monitored by meteorologists as it impacts daily life and infrastructure across the Low Countries.
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Current Weather Picture in Europe
A strong high-pressure system has been stationed over Scandinavia for some time, bringing bitterly cold temperatures to Eastern Europe. Temperatures across much of the region are well below freezing, with nighttime lows reaching below -20°C. This Arctic continental air mass is extending into the northeastern Benelux, maintaining cold conditions there. This contrasts sharply with Western Europe, where temperatures remain well above freezing due to the influx of maritime air.
This pressure configuration typically leads to a southerly jet stream. The Scandinavian high effectively pushes low-pressure systems southeastward, primarily over the Mediterranean Sea, with significant consequences for countries in that region. Portugal recently experienced a severe storm, including a sting jet, while Spain and parts of Italy have seen substantial rainfall.
- A southerly jet stream combined with an atmospheric river often leads to heavy precipitation: HERE
Weather Forecast for the Coming Days
Monday
Monday morning will see a small low-pressure area over the Benelux with mostly cloudy skies. Some precipitation (rain, with wintry precipitation in the north) is possible, particularly in the east and north. The southwest will be drier, with some clearing later in the day, especially in the southwest and along the French border. Cloud cover will persist in the north with a continued chance of precipitation. Temperatures will reach highs around the freezing point in the north and up to 10 degrees Celsius elsewhere. A moderate wind will blow from the east to southeast, becoming fairly strong in the north.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, a new precipitation zone will attempt to move over the Benelux from the southwest. The day will begin with cloudy skies and some rain in that area. Further north, there will still be broad clearings. Gradually, the precipitation zone will shift northward, becoming drier with some clearings from the southwest. However, by evening, these clearings will reach the northeast, increasing the chance of (freezing) rain as warmer air aloft is introduced. Maximum temperatures will range between -2°C and +10°C, with a moderate east wind shifting to the south in the south.
Wednesday
Wednesday will be variably cloudy with alternating high and mid-level cloud cover. Aside from some light rain in the morning, it will remain dry. Temperatures will remain mild in much of the Benelux, with highs up to 10-11°C. Only the far northeast will remain cooler, with temperatures around or just above freezing.
Thursday
Thursday is also expected to be a predominantly dry day. In large parts of the Netherlands, the day will begin with cloudy skies and extensive low cloud cover. Some light drizzle from this cloud cover is possible. Further south, there will be broad clearings. As the day progresses, this cloud cover will shift southward, allowing for some cloud fields in Belgium as well. Elsewhere, it will remain cloudy. Temperatures will remain stable, with temperatures around freezing in the north and up to 9 degrees Celsius on the French border. A moderate wind will blow from the east to northeast.
Friday
Friday will start dry, but a new precipitation zone will move in from the southwest. The timing of this is still uncertain, which has implications for the type of precipitation. Warmer air is being introduced at higher altitudes, so the chance of snow is low, but if the ground remains below freezing, the chance of freezing rain increases. These developments are being monitored closely. Maximum temperatures will again vary, with around freezing in the north and up to 10-11 degrees Celsius in the southwest. A moderate north-easterly breeze will blow in the north, shifting to the south in the south.
Saturday & Sunday
Uncertainty increases significantly for the weekend, especially in the north of the Benelux. The southern half of the Benelux will remain predominantly mild, with temperatures between 5-10 degrees Celsius. The question is to what extent this mild air will extend northeastward. Maximum temperatures there could range from around freezing to nearly 10°C. A great deal of uncertainty remains! It will be mostly cloudy with occasional chances of light rain. Precipitation amounts will be limited.
Will Winter Extend Over the Benelux?
That is the million-dollar question. The temperature contrast in the Benelux, which creates large temperature differences over short distances, can sometimes be frustrating. In the European weather plume, the difference between the north and south of the Benelux remains large, although we are seeing a decline in temperatures towards the second decade of February. This is linked to the development of a high-pressure area over Greenland, which could allow colder air to flow westward again.
The stratospheric polar vortex will also be monitored in the coming days. A strong warming is expected to occur there soon, which could lead to a major SSW, or a reversal of the zonal winds. This usually has an effect on tropospheric pressure distributions 2-3 weeks later, meaning we could be looking at another cold period towards the end of February/beginning of March. Or will it just get milder? Either way, it remains an interesting period, and with a possible SSW, there will be extra complexity in the coming weeks and months (cold spring, or a mild spring)…
- Interested in the climate? Then this literature might be something for you.
