Beijing on Monday released economic data showing China’s growth slowed to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its weakest pace in three years despite meeting the government’s annual target of 5.0% overall. The figures underscore growing concerns about the world’s second-largest economy as it navigates headwinds from a cooling property market and fluctuating global demand – issues that could have ripple effects worldwide. While a record trade surplus provided some buffer, continued reliance on exports signals underlying vulnerabilities in domestic consumption.
BEIJING, January 19 – China’s economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in three years during the fourth quarter, weighed down by softening domestic demand, though the world’s second-largest economy still met its annual growth target. The figures raise concerns about the outlook as trade tensions and structural imbalances continue to pose challenges.
Despite fears of greater U.S. tariffs, the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience throughout the year. Chinese exporters successfully diversified their markets away from the United States, allowing Beijing to avoid implementing further stimulus measures. This performance was particularly notable given the ongoing global economic uncertainty.
However, domestic demand began to cool towards the end of the year, fueled by growing concerns surrounding a prolonged downturn in the country’s property sector.
Official data released Monday showed the Chinese economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, slightly exceeding a consensus estimate of 4.4%. However, this represents a deceleration from the 4.8% growth recorded in the previous quarter, with both consumption and investment figures remaining subdued.
This marks the slowest growth rate in three years.
For the full year 2025, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 5.0%, meeting the government’s annual target of around 5.0%, as it did in 2024. Analysts had, on average, predicted a 4.9% increase for the year.
The manufacturing sector was a key driver of this growth. China reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, boosted by exports to markets outside the U.S. as it navigated ongoing trade pressures.
The country’s continued reliance on external demand, however, highlights its vulnerability, particularly as consumer spending remains sluggish amid the property crisis and persistent deflationary pressures.
On a quarterly basis, the Chinese economy expanded by 1.2% during the October-December period, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This compares to a consensus forecast of 1.0% and a 1.1% increase in the third quarter.
Separate data released Monday indicated that industrial production rose 5.2% year-on-year in December, accelerating from the 4.8% increase recorded the previous month.
However, retail sales only edged up 0.9% last month, compared to a 1.3% increase in November. Analysts had anticipated an average increase of 1.2%.
(Kevin Yao and Ellen Zhang; version française Jean Terzian)
