Amidst ongoing global chip shortages and economic headwinds impacting the consumer electronics sector,the smartphone market faces a potentially challenging 2026. While projections indicate a possible 5% decline in overall smartphone shipments, one segment is poised for substantial growth: foldable phones. Industry analysts at IDC predict nearly 30% growth for foldable devices this year, driven by anticipated innovations like Samsung’s Galaxy Z TriFold and, crucially, Apple’s expected entry into the foldable market later in the year.
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Global chip shortages are putting significant pressure on the consumer electronics industry, impacting everything from computers and smartphones to household appliances.
Analysts cited by the Financial Times are forecasting substantial price increases for components, potentially driving up retail prices for electronic devices by as much as 20 percent.
This price hike, occurring amidst global economic uncertainty, raises concerns that consumers may delay purchases if they don’t see a corresponding increase in product quality.
The situation is also influencing the outlook for the global smartphone market.
Research firm IDC projects a potential 5 percent decline in the global smartphone market by 2026 in a pessimistic scenario. This downturn is attributed to rising average selling prices and lengthening device replacement cycles.
However, within the broader smartphone market, foldable phones are poised for significant growth. IDC reports that shipments of foldable phones are expected to surge by 29.7 percent in 2026.
This growth will be fueled by new product innovations, including the anticipated launch of Apple’s first foldable iPhone and Samsung’s Galaxy Z TriFold, which introduces a three-foldable design to the global market.
“2026 will be a very exciting year for the foldable category, with annual growth of nearly 30 percent, well above the previous projection of 6 percent,” said Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director at IDC, in a statement. The foldable market represents a key area of innovation as manufacturers seek to revitalize consumer interest in upgrading devices.
According to Popal, Samsung will kick off 2026 with the Galaxy Z TriFold, building on the success of the Galaxy Z Fold7 in 2025.
Foldable phones running Huawei’s HarmonyOS Next are also expected to see strong growth, with shipment volumes nearly doubling in 2026.
However, Popal believes Apple’s entry into the foldable segment later in 2026 will be a critical factor.
Francisco Jeronimo, IDC’s Vice President of Client Devices, echoed this sentiment, stating that Apple’s first foldable phone will mark a new chapter for the segment.
“Apple often acts as a catalyst for the adoption of new products in the mainstream market. While foldable phones remain a niche segment in terms of volume, they will become an important driver of value for vendors, as their average selling prices can be three times higher than standard phones,” Jeronimo explained.
IDC notes that consumers holding onto their phones for longer periods in 2026 presents a challenge to manufacturers regarding replacement cycles.
In an increasingly saturated market, foldable phones are viewed as a key innovation to drive upgrades and create new value.
Looking ahead to the medium term, IDC forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 17 percent for the foldable segment through 2029.
This significantly outpaces the projected growth for conventional phones, which is expected to remain below 1 percent.
In terms of operating systems, Android is projected to dominate the foldable phone market in 2026 with a 61 percent share, followed by Apple at 22 percent and HarmonyOS Next at 17 percent.
However, IDC emphasizes that all projections are subject to change based on global market dynamics, economic conditions, and future technological developments.
