As Colombia prepares for presidential elections in May, a new poll reveals a surprising frontrunner dynamic largely autonomous of the upcoming primary contests.The AtlasIntel survey, published by *La Revista Semana*, shows Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda in a statistical tie, despite neither participating in the March 8th primaries [[1]]. This outcome suggests a perhaps fractured political landscape as the nation of over 51 million people [[1]] seeks its next leader.
A new poll indicates a tight race for the Colombian presidency, with two candidates emerging as frontrunners despite not being slated to compete in primary elections earlier this month. Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda are currently neck and neck in the polls, signaling a potentially unpredictable election cycle as Colombia prepares to choose its next leader.
The AtlasIntel survey, published by La Revista Semana, shows de la Espriella with 32.1% support and Cepeda at 31.4%. Trailing significantly behind is Sergio Fajardo, who garnered 7.6% in the poll. Notably, none of the three are participating in the presidential primaries held on March 8, which coincided with congressional elections.
Paloma Valencia, with 3.8% support, is considered the favorite to win the “Gran Consulta por Colombia,” a primary organized by a center-right coalition. Former Bogotá Mayor Claudia López also appears in the running with 3.7%, though she’s chosen to compete in the primaries alongside Leonardo Huertas, a relatively unknown former government official.
No other candidates polled above 3%. Former Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón, seen as a potential strong contender in the “Gran Consulta,” registered 1.7%, while Roy Barreras, who believes himself to be the strongest candidate from the “Frente por la vida” coalition, received only 0.3%.
Demographic data reveals a stark contrast between the support bases of de la Espriella and Cepeda. Cepeda dominates among younger voters, securing 34.2% of those aged 18-24 and 32.3% of those aged 25-34. De la Espriella, however, gains traction with older demographics, particularly those between 45 and 59, where he holds a 33.2% lead.
Regional differences also play a significant role. Cepeda commands a strong lead in the Pacific region, a traditional stronghold for the left, with 48.7% compared to de la Espriella’s 12.8%. Conversely, de la Espriella enjoys a substantial advantage in Bogotá, with 37.7% support against Cepeda’s 19.3%.
This disparity is concerning for the left-leaning candidates, as Bogotá typically accounts for 13% of the total presidential vote. To compensate for potential losses in the capital and other central departments, Cepeda will need to perform strongly in the Caribbean Coast region, which represents between 20% and 22% of the national vote. However, the AtlasIntel poll shows a close contest there, with Cepeda at 34.3% and de la Espriella, a native of the region, at 29.2%.
The challenges facing left-leaning candidates in Bogotá are detailed in a separate report, which anticipates potential losses for the coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
The poll also explored potential second-round scenarios, which remain difficult to predict. However, de la Espriella is projected to defeat all other candidates in a head-to-head matchup.
The full poll results, including technical details, are available here.
