Despite the official end of the COVID-19 public health emergency, the virus remains a persistent threat, particularly as winter approaches and cases begin to rise across the United States. Experts are closely monitoring the ongoing evolution of the virus, with the Omicron family – and a new subvariant called XFG – currently driving infections. This report details the latest findings on symptoms, potential risks, and the continued importance of vaccination as we head into 2026.
Even as the COVID-19 public health emergency has ended, the virus continues to pose a serious risk to vulnerable populations. Cases are currently rising across the United States, a typical trend during the winter months, prompting experts to assess the virus’s likely evolution through 2026 and to offer guidance on symptom awareness and preventative measures.
The Omicron Variant
While more than 20 different variants of COVID-19 have been identified, experts anticipate that Omicron variants will remain dominant in the coming year. “All of the COVID variants currently circulating are part of the Omicron family, which has been with us for several years now,” explained Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of Preventive Medicine at Vanderbilt University.
XFG: The Dominant Strain
The most recent variant, a descendant of the Omicron family, is called XFG, or Stratus, according to Dr. Thomas Russo, chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases at Buffalo University. “It appears to be more adept at evading the immune system than its predecessors, which has allowed it to become dominant as immunity from prior infection or vaccination wanes,” he said. Currently, XFG is “driving cases,” but Russo added that “a new variant will emerge,” though the timing remains uncertain. This ongoing evolution highlights the need for continued vigilance and adaptation in public health strategies.
Symptoms
In the vast majority of cases, COVID-19 presents with mild symptoms. However, a small percentage of individuals experience more severe complications that can lead to hospitalization and even death. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the XFG variant can cause a wide range of symptoms, “ranging from sore throat and mild cold symptoms to severe illness and death, depending on the host,” Russo stated. Individuals under 4 years old, pregnant women, those over 65, people with weakened immune systems, and those with underlying health conditions are “more likely to have a negative prognosis,” he added.
Case Increases in 2026?
Dr. Schaffner noted that the U.S. is seeing “an increase in COVID hospitalizations,” indicating the start of the expected winter surge. Currently, the virus is “constantly mutating within the Omicron family, but fortunately, no radically new viral variant has emerged on the international scene in several years.” However, Dr. Russo suggested that this winter, “a new variant may arise that is more contagious than XFG, or better able to evade pre-existing immunity.”
The Importance of Vaccination
Vaccination, alongside viral mutation, significantly impacts COVID-19 hospitalization rates. Schaffner stated that in the United States, despite the current rise in virus-related hospitalizations, “virtually no one is up to date with their vaccinations.” The professor urges Americans to be aware of and respect the seriousness of the disease. He added that older adults and those with chronic illnesses, compromised immune systems, or who are pregnant should “avail themselves of the vaccine.” “We cannot be complacent with COVID,” said Professor Russo. “It remains a potentially lethal disease, especially in high-risk individuals.” He recommends that individuals at high risk “get vaccinated at least once a year, and even two shots a year.” While the COVID vaccine may not prevent infection, it is “very effective in reducing the likelihood of hospitalization,” he affirmed.
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