Iran Sees Record $9 Billion Capital Flight in First Quarter, Economy Faces Mounting Pressure
Iran experienced its largest-ever quarterly capital outflow in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, with approximately $9 billion leaving the country, according to a report published today by the Central Bank of Iran.
The outflow, beginning March 21, significantly surpasses previous figures, with total capital flight reaching $20.7 billion last year – triple the amount recorded in 2020. If the current trend continues, projections estimate potential outflows of $36 billion by March 2026, representing roughly 10 percent of Iran’s GDP. This escalating capital flight threatens to further destabilize the Iranian economy, already strained by international sanctions and internal challenges.
Data indicates a substantial portion of the outflow is linked to foreign trade, with approximately $80 billion in capital having left the country between 2018 and 2024. Hossein Samsami, a member of parliament’s Economic Committee, stated earlier this year that $95 billion in non-oil export revenues had not been repatriated to Iran between 2018 and mid-2025. Recent reports from Kpler show Iranian oil offloading at Chinese ports has decreased in recent months, falling to around 1.2 million barrels per day from an average of 1.44 million earlier in the year. Export revenues have also declined, with oil income falling by $3 billion to $15 billion and non-oil exports decreasing by $1 billion to under $11 billion this spring. For more on Iran’s economic challenges, see the International Monetary Fund’s country profile.
Officials are voicing concerns about severe foreign-currency shortages. Meysam Zohoorian, a member of parliament’s Economic Committee, reported that the Planning and Budget Organization is “stuck with three billion dollars” needed for oil field investment. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated his administration can only secure approximately one-third of that amount for development projects, adding, “We are negotiating over one billion dollars to figure out where to find it.”
