The global consumer electronics market faces a challenging outlook for 2026, as a persistent memory chip shortage drives up component costs and threatens too dampen smartphone sales. While overall smartphone shipments are projected to decline, a surprising segment is poised for significant growth: foldable phones. industry analysts at IDC predict nearly 30% growth in foldable shipments next year, fueled by anticipated product launches from Samsung, Huawei, and-potentially-AppleS entry into the foldable market [[1]].
The consumer electronics industry is bracing for significant headwinds in 2026, driven by a global shortage of memory chips. The scarcity is already impacting a wide range of products – from computers and smartphones to household appliances – and is leading to price increases for consumers.
Analysts predict substantial increases in electronic component costs, potentially pushing retail prices up by as much as 20%. This could put a strain on consumer spending, particularly given the current global economic uncertainty, and is especially concerning if price hikes aren’t matched by improvements in product quality.
The global smartphone market is particularly vulnerable. International Data Corporation (IDC) projects a potential decline in worldwide smartphone shipments of up to 5% in 2026, fueled by rising average selling prices and consumers holding onto their devices for longer periods.
Traditional smartphones with non-folding displays are expected to bear the brunt of this downturn. IDC forecasts a 1.4% decrease in shipments of these devices in 2026, reflecting waning consumer interest in products lacking significant innovation.
Foldable Phones Set to Replace Conventional Models
However, the foldable smartphone segment is poised for substantial growth. IDC anticipates a 29.7% increase in foldable phone shipments in 2026, a significant jump from a previous projection of 6%.
This growth is expected to be spurred by the anticipated launch of Apple’s first foldable iPhone, alongside Samsung’s Galaxy Z TriFold, which introduces a three-foldable design. The rise of foldable phones represents a key area of innovation in a maturing smartphone market.
“2026 will be an exciting year for the foldable category, with annual growth projected to be nearly 30%, compared to the previous forecast of 6%,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC.
“Samsung will kick off 2026 with the Galaxy Z TriFold, introducing a three-foldable phone to the global mainstream market and building on the success of the Galaxy Z Fold7 in 2025. Huawei’s foldable phones running HarmonyOS Next will also see strong growth, with shipments nearly doubling in 2026. But the game-changer for the foldable category will arrive at the end of 2026 when Apple enters the sector,” she added.
Francisco Jeronimo, VP for client devices at IDC, believes Apple’s entry will be a pivotal moment for the foldable segment.
“Apple’s move will generate excitement around the foldable category. Apple tends to act as a catalyst for mainstream adoption of new product categories. While foldables will remain a niche segment in terms of volume, they will become a relevant value driver for most vendors offering them, as their average selling prices will be three times higher than standard phones,” he stated.
Consumers are also expected to hold onto their phones for longer in 2026, making device replacement cycles more challenging for manufacturers. Foldable phones are therefore becoming increasingly important for an industry that has reached a saturation point and needs meaningful innovation to drive upgrades and value.
The foldable phone category is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% through 2029, compared to less than 1% for conventional phones.
Looking at operating systems, IDC reports that Android is expected to dominate the foldable phone market in 2026 with a 61% share, followed by Apple with 22% and HarmonyOS Next with 17%.
It’s important to note that these projections are subject to change based on evolving market conditions.
(fab/fab)
