A new study reveals a critical vulnerability in the global energy landscape: an overreliance on fossil fuels concentrated in regions heavily influenced by the United States and Russia. The analysis from 350.org and Zero Carbon Analytics suggests this dependence creates significant geopolitical and economic risks, perhaps exacerbating instability amid ongoing international conflicts. As Washington pursues a strategy of expanded influence-described by some as a modern “Monroe Doctrine”-concerns are growing about the potential for energy supply disruptions and escalating market volatility.
A new analysis reveals a significant link between global reliance on fossil fuels and heightened geopolitical and economic risks, prompting concerns about energy security and market stability.
A joint study by environmental organization 350.org and research firm Zero Carbon Analytics indicates that 81% of the world’s oil reserves and 68% of global oil production are concentrated in countries either directly or indirectly influenced by the United States. This concentration of resources in politically sensitive regions underscores the potential for disruptions to global energy supplies.
The study comes amid increasing international instability and a stated U.S. strategy to strengthen its dominant position in global energy markets. Venezuela, holding approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil reserves, is central to this dynamic, as Washington seeks to both politically pressure the current regime and attract foreign investment into the country’s oil sector.
A Shift in U.S. Energy Doctrine
The latest U.S. National Security Strategy explicitly outlines ambitions to expand American influence across political, economic, and military domains. Analysts at 350.org have termed this document the “Monroe Doctrine 2.0,” referencing the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, which historically asserted U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere and justified numerous interventions in Latin America and the Caribbean.
According to the report, 81% of global oil reserves, and more than half of the world’s natural gas reserves and production, are currently located within countries falling under U.S. influence. When combined with production controlled by Russia, this figure rises to 79% of global oil supply dependent on just two major power centers. This level of concentration raises concerns about potential supply chain vulnerabilities.
The strategy explicitly categorizes North, Central, and South American countries as being within the sphere of U.S. influence, with the stated goal of reaffirming American dominance throughout the hemisphere and reshaping political, economic, and security relationships.
Energy Security as a Growing Risk
“These figures highlight a structural fragility within the global energy system,” said Andreas Sieber, Head of Political Strategy at 350.org, in a statement. “Dependence on fossil fuels has become a security risk. Every sanction, every military threat, or every escalation of tension has immediate effects on prices, supply, and economic stability.”
Over the past twelve months, the report notes, the U.S. has engaged in military intervention or bombing campaigns in countries including Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq, while also issuing explicit threats against other territories, including Canada, Colombia, Greenland, and Mexico. “In the Americas, many countries threatened by the previous administration may not be under direct U.S. control, but are widely considered to be within Washington’s strategic sphere of influence—a reality that carries significant political and market risks,” 350.org stated.
“Even oil producers not facing direct pressure are deeply integrated into U.S. financial and military systems, as demonstrated by the long-standing security cooperation with countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, reinforcing Washington’s leverage over the global energy market. This effectively strengthens U.S. influence over global oil supply without necessarily resorting to direct military action.”
Renewables as a Strategic Alternative
Bridget Woodman, Director of Policy and Finance at Zero Carbon Analytics, stated that this concentration of power “only exacerbates the volatility and costs of oil and gas,” with direct impacts on consumers and national economies. The findings underscore the economic benefits of diversifying energy sources.
The study’s authors emphasize that an alternative is already underway. According to the International Energy Agency, global electricity generation capacity from renewable sources is projected to grow by 4,600 gigawatts between 2025 and 2030 – double the growth recorded in the previous five years. Solar energy, wind power, battery storage, and electrification are presented not only as climate solutions, but as long-term security strategies.
“Renewable energy systems do not need military protection, do not destabilize regions, and do not fuel geopolitical conflicts,” Sieber concluded. In a world increasingly marked by strategic rivalries, the report delivers a clear warning: as long as oil remains the cornerstone of the global energy system, instability will be part of the price.
