Political stability appears to be a defining characteristic of municipal elections, with incumbents enjoying a significant advantage. Recent data suggests that roughly 40% of mayors are re-elected at each election cycle over the past three decades. This trend is reinforced by a French electoral survey conducted by Ipsos BVA – Cesi Ecole d’ingénieurs for Le Monde, the Cevipof and the Jean Jaurès Foundation, which found that 61% of French citizens want to witness the current majority win in their municipality, while only 39% desire a change. The survey likewise revealed that 72% of voters believe the current majority’s performance has been “excellent” or “fine,” with only 28% considering it “mediocre” or “terrible.”
However, another key aspect of municipal elections is that this overall picture can be misleading, obscuring the growing importance of elections with different dynamics, particularly in cities with populations over 30,000. These cities represent 32% of the total population, encompassing a little over 21 million residents. Within this segment, and especially in cities exceeding 100,000 inhabitants, competitions are particularly fierce, resembling what political scientist Martial Foucault terms a “municipal presidentialism”—highly personalized and more polarized than in the rest of the country.
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