The global economy is entering 2026 with a mixed outlook: growth is expected to reach +2.6% – a slight decrease from the 2.8% recorded in 2025 – despite a persistent backdrop of geopolitical, financial, and social risks. This assessment comes from the latest country and sector risk barometer released in February 2026.
Coface has made 7 revisions to country risk assessments (including 6 downgrades) and 9 revisions to sector assessments (including 7 downgrades).
Key Figures
- +2.6%: Projected global growth for 2026
- +3.9%: Global trade growth in 2025.
- +15%: Increase in U.S. Corporate bankruptcies in the second half of 2025
2025 Demonstrated the Resilience of Globalization
2025 largely met expectations, marked by an acceleration of global events and a stabilization of global growth in line with initial forecasts of +2.8%. This seemingly paradoxical result is primarily attributable to two factors. First, the economic shock experienced globally wasn’t as severe as initially feared, particularly regarding tariffs. Second, businesses, especially those internationally focused, demonstrated a strong capacity for adaptation, confirming that globalization remains a robust force driven by powerful engines and enduring interdependencies.
This resilience is particularly noteworthy given the increasing complexity of the global landscape and the potential for disruption.
2026 Begins Amid High Tension
The year 2026 begins with a continued high level of uncertainty and often extreme risks. Geopolitical risk is a primary concern, as recent events from Latin America to Iran and even Greenland demonstrate. Financial risk is also elevated, given debt levels and asset valuations in an environment of sustained higher interest rates.
More broadly, macroeconomic risk remains a threat, with uncertainty surrounding U.S. Economic policy and the ongoing possibility of renewed trade conflicts, set against a backdrop of intensifying international competition and declining global cooperation.
Social and political risks are also growing, fueled by widespread and increasing discontent in many countries, particularly in Europe. Sanitary and climate risks remain present and are, in some cases, intensifying.
Global Growth Slows But Remains Resilient
The global economic landscape remains uneven. The U.S. Is expected to see growth of +2.2%, supported by continued strong consumer spending, despite a notable increase in bankruptcies in the second half of 2025 (+15%). The Eurozone is projected to experience activity around 1%, driven by a rebound in Germany thanks to a large investment plan, while France, constrained by a public deficit remaining above 5% of GDP, is expected to stabilize around +0.9%. Central Europe is showing more robust dynamics, led by Poland (+3.8%). In Asia, China’s growth is expected to slow to +4.4%, weighing on regional momentum, while Southeast Asia demonstrates varying degrees of resilience. India continues to be a key driver of growth, with a projected +6.1% expansion fueled by strong domestic demand and proactive government policies.
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Oil prices are expected to decline, from 68 dollars per barrel of Brent in 2025 to around 60 dollars, reflecting moderate demand growth and a significant increase in supply. Despite potential volatility linked to the geopolitical environment, energy prices are expected to remain relatively neutral for inflation, which continues to fall in most regions.
Global Trade Defies Expectations
Despite concerns related to U.S. Tariff offensives, global trade surprised in 2025 with a 3.9% increase in the volume of trade, boosted by strong U.S. Imports and a final U.S. Tariff increase that was more moderate than expected (9.4% average effective in November versus 36% anticipated at the peak of tensions with China).
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Vietnam has benefited significantly from the redeployment of supply chains (+43% in U.S. Imports from January to November 2025), while Europe has stabilized its foreign trade. A gradual slowdown is expected for 2026, accompanied by a decrease in freight rates due to overcapacity and the potential return of traditional maritime routes.
Country Risk: 7 Changes, Including 6 Downgrades
🔼 Upgrades1
- Chile (A4 → A3): Increased investment in copper and energy, supported by a stabilized institutional context.
- Poland (A4 → A3): Dynamic investment thanks to European funds and continued strong household consumption.
- Sweden (A3 → A2): Resilient private demand and an improving labor market, supported by an expansionary fiscal policy.
- Cyprus (A4 → A3): Record tourism performance and European funds stimulating activity.
- Barbados (C → B): Effective fiscal consolidation and a continued decline in debt supporting economic resilience.
- Ecuador (D → C): Solid recovery after the 2024 energy crisis, accompanied by budgetary reforms and IMF support.
🔽 Downgrade
- Senegal (B → C): Budgetary drift and unsustainable debt complicating discussions with the IMF.
> Discover our detailed analyses in the Risk Barometer
1 Country risk: A1 = Very low, A2 = Low, A3 = Satisfactory, A4 = Adequate, B = Fairly high, C = High, D = Very high, E = Extreme
