Amidst escalating global uncertainties, analysts predict a potential surge in gold prices in Indonesia this week, with some forecasting a rise to Rp 2,820,000 per gram. The expected increase is fueled by ongoing trade tensions between the European Union and China, geopolitical instability in Iran, and domestic political developments in the United States, all contributing to gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset. According to currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi,these factors,combined with increased bullion purchases by central banks across Asia and Latin America,are driving market volatility and bolstering demand for the precious metal.
Gold prices are expected to continue their ascent this week, potentially reaching Rp 2,820,000 per gram as geopolitical tensions and trade disputes escalate. The precious metal is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of global uncertainty, driving demand and bolstering prices.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi cited intensifying global tensions, including ongoing trade wars and a volatile situation in the Middle East, as key drivers of the anticipated price increase.
“There is a strong possibility that the price of gold could reach Rp 2,820,000 per gram if it breaks through the second resistance level,” Assuaibi stated on Sunday, January 18, 2026.
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Gold closed at US$ 4,595 per troy ounce in trading yesterday, while the price of gold domestically stood at Rp 2,680,000 per gram. However, Assuaibi predicts prices will fluctuate based on two potential scenarios.
Should global gold prices rise, he anticipates a break of the first resistance level at US$ 4,655 per troy ounce, pushing domestic prices to Rp 2,700,000. Further gains could see gold reach US$ 4,706 per troy ounce globally and Rp 2,820,000 per gram domestically.
Conversely, a decline in global gold prices could see it test the first support level at US$ 4,553 per troy ounce, bringing domestic prices down to Rp 2,638,000 per gram. Continued declines could push prices to a second support level of US$ 4,489 per troy ounce and Rp 2,560,000 per gram.
Several factors are contributing to the volatility in gold prices, according to Assuaibi. First, the ongoing trade war between the European Union and China. The EU recently imposed anti-dumping tariffs on alumina imports from China, ranging from 88.7% to 110.6%, with China expected to retaliate next week.
Second, U.S. President Donald Trump’s reported interest in acquiring Greenland. Trump is reportedly considering a 20% import tariff on European products if Greenland is not ceded to the U.S., and NATO forces are now stationed there.
Third, the increasingly tense geopolitical situation in Iran. Large-scale protests in Iran have resulted in over 3,000 deaths. Assuaibi noted that Iran temporarily closed its airspace, signaling a heightened state of alert for potential conflict, and the U.S. aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln has reportedly been deployed to the Middle East.
Fourth, domestic political issues in the U.S. Assuaibi stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is reportedly expected to be called before the Attorney General regarding political matters related to the development of the Central Bank, adding to market uncertainty.
In addition to these factors, global central banks, including those in China, India, Latin America, and ASEAN countries, have been aggressively purchasing gold. These institutions appear to view the current global situation as precarious.
“As a result, the central banks of China, India, South America, Latin America, and ASEAN are all competing to purchase precious metals. This increased demand is driving up global gold prices. The weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah is also contributing to the rise in domestic gold prices,” Assuaibi explained.
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