Current Gold Price vs. U.S. Dollar: $5300
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East spurred safe-haven demand, pushing gold prices above $5400.
- Positive U.S. Economic data helped improve market sentiment during U.S. Trading hours.
- The gold/U.S. Dollar pair (XAU/USD) filled its weekly opening gap and is currently settling around $5300.
Spot gold prices rose to $5419 on Monday, March 2, 2026, as risk aversion gripped financial markets. The surge followed joint military strikes by the United States and Israel against targets in Iran over the weekend, reportedly resulting in the death of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran responded forcefully, targeting U.S. Bases in several Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
Market participants flocked to safe-haven assets, with the U.S. Dollar (USD) strengthening against most major rivals whereas gold gained traction against the dollar. The landscape shifted following the release of positive U.S. Economic data, causing the XAU/USD pair to decline by more than $100 per ounce.
S&. P Global released the final reading for the February manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), confirming a figure of 51.6, up from an initial estimate of 51.2. The ISM manufacturing PMI for the same period registered 52.4, slightly below January’s 52.6 but above the 51.8 market expectation. The ISM report also showed the employment index improved to 48.8 in February, while the prices paid index, a measure of inflation within the survey, jumped to 70.5 from 59 in January.
The encouraging U.S. Data also provided a boost to Wall Street, with the three major indices rebounding from their intraday lows, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 trading in positive territory as of Monday afternoon. This movement highlights the interconnectedness of global markets and the influence of economic indicators on investor sentiment.
However, clashes in the Middle East are likely to continue in the coming weeks and could easily deteriorate market sentiment, reviving demand for gold. The ongoing instability underscores the region’s importance to global economic stability and energy markets.
Short-Term Technical Outlook for the XAU/USD Pair
On the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair is undergoing a downward correction. The near-term bias remains slightly bullish as the price stays above the 20, 100, and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs), with shorter-term averages clustering near $5245 and longer-term averages towards $5080 and $5000, reinforcing the underlying positive trend. Momentum is declining but remains above the midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizes near 58 but is still trending downwards, reflecting a slide without signaling latest lows in the future.
On the daily chart, the XAU/USD pair retains its positive momentum. The near-term bias is bullish as the price remains above the 20, 100, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), maintaining the broader upward trend despite recent volatility. At the same time, technical indicators maintain their upward inclinations within positive levels, consistent with higher peaks in the future.
Initial support appears at the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart near $5245, where a pullback will test the validity of the current rally, followed by deeper support at the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) near $5080. A break below these levels could expose the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) near $5000 as a more strategic floor. On the upside, immediate resistance lies near the recent peak around $5420, and a sustainable break above this area would open the path toward record territories.
(The technical analysis for this story was assisted by an artificial intelligence tool.)
