Indonesia Markets Mixed, Foreign Outflow & Leadership Changes Weigh on Sentiment – Feb 2026

Saham global anjlok dan dolar AS menguat tajam pada Jumat atau perdagangan terakhir pekan lalu setelah Presiden Amerika Serikat Donald Trump mengumumkan mantan gubernur Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh sebagai pilihannya untuk menjadi ketua bank sentral berikutnya, sementara data inflasi menunjukkan hasil yang lebih kuat dari perkiraan.

Warsh, yang kerap menjadi pengkritik The Fed, dipandang sebagai pendukung suku bunga yang lebih rendah, namun juga dianggap tidak akan melangkah sejauh pelonggaran agresif yang dikaitkan dengan beberapa kandidat potensial lainnya. Warsh akan mengambil alih jabatan ketika masa jabatan Ketua The Fed saat ini, Jerome Powell, berakhir pada Mei, jika ia lolos konfirmasi di Senat yang komposisinya terbelah tipis.

Trump mengatakan tidak pantas untuk menanyakan langsung kepada Warsh apakah ia akan memangkas suku bunga, tetapi menambahkan bahwa ia yakin Warsh cenderung menurunkan biaya pinjaman.

Saham Wall Street melemah setelah data ekonomi menunjukkan Indeks Harga Produsen (PPI) untuk permintaan akhir melonjak 0,5% bulan lalu, di atas perkiraan 0,2% para ekonom yang disurvei Reuters, setelah kenaikan 0,2% pada November yang tidak direvisi. Dunia usaha tampak meneruskan kenaikan biaya akibat tarif impor kepada konsumen.

Investor juga terus mencermati deretan laporan kinerja perusahaan. Saham Apple (AAPL.O) ditutup naik 0,43% setelah produsen iPhone tersebut melaporkan kinerja kuartalan, sementara KLA Corp (KLAC.O) anjlok lebih dari 15% dan menjadi salah satu penekan terbesar indeks S&P 500 setelah perusahaan peralatan semikonduktor itu merilis laporan keuangannya.

“Mungkin sebagian kegelisahan ini berasal dari ketidakpastian-ada ketua baru yang dinominasikan, akan ada prioritas baru, mungkin arah kebijakan moneter yang baru, dan itu menjadi sumber kecemasan. Namun demikian, secara keseluruhan, pemilihannya sudah cukup banyak diperkirakan di antara kandidat dalam daftar pendek,” kata Terry Sandven, kepala strategi saham di U.S. Bank Asset Management, Minneapolis, kepada Reuters.

“Volatilitas pada Jumat, menurut saya, lebih merupakan fungsi dari indikator inflasi yang menunjukkan persistensi, dan kedua, laporan laba perusahaan yang sedang dicerna pasar-dengan pertanyaan utama mengenai profitabilitas dari belanja modal (capex) besar-besaran yang dikeluarkan,” tambah Sandven.

Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) turun 179,09 poin atau 0,36% ke 48.892,47, S&P 500 (.SPX) melemah 29,98 poin atau 0,43% ke 6.939,03, dan Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) merosot 223,30 poin atau 0,94% ke 23.461,82.

Sepanjang pekan lalu, S&P 500 naik 0,3%-kenaikan pertamanya dalam tiga pekan-sementara Dow turun 0,4% dan Nasdaq melemah 0,2%. Secara bulanan, S&P 500 naik 1,4%, Dow menguat 1,7%, dan Nasdaq naik 0,9%.

Indeks saham global MSCI (.MIWD00000PUS) turun 7,26 poin atau 0,69% ke 1.042,93, namun masih berada di jalur kenaikan mingguan serta mencatatkan kenaikan persentase bulanan terbesar sejak September.

Indeks STOXX 600 Eropa (.STOXX) ditutup naik 0,64%, mempertahankan penguatan setelah pengumuman Trump terkait The Fed. Kinerja laba perusahaan yang kuat mendorong indeks ini mencatatkan kenaikan bulanan terbesar sejak Mei. Indeks tersebut membukukan kenaikan bulanan ketujuh berturut-turut-rentang terpanjang sejak 2021.

Di pasar valuta asing, dolar AS menguat menyusul pengumuman Warsh dan data inflasi, melanjutkan tanda-tanda stabilisasi setelah pelemahan sebelumnya.

Indeks dolar (=USD), yang mengukur greenback terhadap sekeranjang mata uang, naik 0,57% ke 96,73, sementara euro (EUR=) turun 0,54% ke US$1,1904. Meski demikian, dolar masih berada di jalur penurunan mingguan kedua berturut-turut dan penurunan bulanan ketiga berturut-turut.

Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah AS tenor panjang bergerak naik tipis, dengan imbal hasil US Treasury 10 tahun (US10YT=RR) naik 2,4 basis poin ke 4,251%, dan berada di jalur kenaikan bulanan kedua berturut-turut. Ini akan menjadi rangkaian kenaikan bulanan beruntun pertama sejak awal 2024.

Menurut CME FedWatch Tool, ekspektasi pasar terhadap jalur penurunan suku bunga relatif tidak berubah setelah pengumuman Warsh. Pasar belum mematok peluang di atas 50% untuk pemangkasan suku bunga hingga pertemuan bank sentral pada Juni.

Presiden Federal Reserve St. Louis, Alberto Musalem, mengatakan bank sentral AS tidak perlu memangkas suku bunga lebih lanjut kecuali pasar tenaga kerja mulai memburuk atau inflasi menurun, mengingat tingkat kebijakan saat ini 3,50%-3,75% bersifat netral.

Penguatan dolar membantu meredakan reli logam terbaru. Emas jatuh ke bawah US$5.000 per ons setelah mencetak rekor hampir US$5.600 pada Kamis.  Perak spot (XAG=) anjlok 27,66% ke US$84 per ons, penurunan harian terbesar setidaknya sejak 1982.

Minyak mentah AS (CLc1) turun 0,32% dan ditutup di US$65,21 per barel, sementara Brent (LCOc1) melemah tipis ke US$70,69 per barel, turun 0,03% pada hari itu. Harga minyak mengonsolidasikan kenaikan terbaru dan bertahan di dekat level tertinggi enam bulan pada Jumat, didukung oleh ketegangan yang terus berlanjut antara AS dan Iran.

Indonesian financial markets are projected to remain volatile in the first week of February 2026. Pressure stems from a combination of ongoing external and domestic factors, ranging from a potential partial U.S. government shutdown to internal dynamics within Indonesian financial markets.

These conditions leave the JCI and rupiah vulnerable to short-term sentiment.

The following data and developments are expected to influence the stock market, rupiah, and SBNs:

Manufacturing PMI
Today, Monday, February 2, 2026, S&P Global will release manufacturing PMI data for January.

Indonesian manufacturing activity stabilized in December 2025 but recorded a five-month expansion phase.

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data showed Indonesia’s PMI at 51.2 in December 2025, a significant increase from 53.3 in October.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.

The Indonesian manufacturing sector continued to expand in December, with growth supported by improved new orders.

Companies also reported continued expansion in production levels, albeit at a slower pace.

The main driver of the improvement in operating conditions was increased incoming new orders.

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Inflation Data and Trade Balance

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) will announce two key releases today: January 2026 inflation and December 2025 trade balance data, as well as full-year 2025 figures.

Inflation in Indonesia is expected to ease in January 2026 as food prices normalize. A market consensus compiled from 11 institutions projects a low monthly inflation rate of around 0.06% (m/m), significantly more controlled than the 0.64% recorded in December 2025.

Year-on-year, inflation is projected to increase to around 3.74% (y/y) from 2.92% in December 2025. This increase is attributed more to technical factors, particularly the low-base effect of electricity tariff discounts in the same period last year, rather than increased domestic demand. Core inflation is expected to remain relatively stable in the 2.4% range.

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Downward pressure on inflation early this year is being contained by a sharp decline in volatile food commodity prices.

Red chili prices have fallen by more than 20%, red onions have weakened by almost 10%, while chicken and egg prices have also recorded corrections. This reflects a normalization of prices after year-end spikes, although some commodities such as rice and cooking oil have seen slight increases.

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The decline in inflation is also supported by cuts in non-subsidized fuel prices by several companies, including Pertamina, Shell, BP-AKR, and Vivo, effective at the beginning of January 2026. The reduction in prices of Pertamax, Pertamax Turbo, and Dexlite has had a direct impact on transportation and distribution costs.

In addition to inflation, BPS will also announce the December 2025 trade balance data. CNBC polling predicts a surplus of US$5.05 billion in December 2025, higher than the US$2.66 billion recorded in November 2025.

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If realized, this surplus will extend Indonesia’s positive trade balance streak to 67 consecutive months, signaling external resilience amid a slowing global economy.

Changes in Leadership at the IDX and OJK

These changes occurred amid sharp market volatility and growing investor concerns regarding governance and transparency, particularly following pressure from MSCI. To maintain stability, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) has appointed replacement officials effective at the end of January, while the appointment of an interim Director General of the IDX is scheduled to be announced early this week.

Following five simultaneous resignations last week, including:

• IDX President Director, Iman Rachman, resigned.
• Chairman of the OJK Board of Commissioners, Mahendra Siregar.
• Deputy Chairman of the OJK Board of Commissioners, Mirza Adityaswara.
• Head of the Capital Market, Derivatives Finance, and Carbon Exchange Supervisory Executive, Inarno Djajadi.
• Deputy Commissioner for Emission Supervision, I.B. Aditya Jayaantara

The resignations of several leaders in the Indonesian capital market were triggered by sharp volatility in the stock market and concerns about governance and investor confidence, particularly after MSCI demanded transparent data and threatened to downgrade Indonesia from Emerging Market to Frontier Market status.

To ensure the continuity of financial sector regulation and supervision, the OJK has appointed replacement officials effective January 31, 2026:

Friderica Widyasari Dewi has been appointed as Acting Chairman and Deputy Chairman of the OJK Board of Commissioners. She previously served as Head of the Financial Services Business Actor Behavior Supervision, Education and Consumer Protection Executive of the OJK and has extensive experience in the capital market industry.

Hasan Fawzi has been appointed as a replacement member of the Capital Market, Derivatives Finance, and Carbon Exchange Supervisory Executive of the OJK Board of Commissioners.

Jeffrey Hendrik is strongly rumored to be appointed as Interim Director General of the IDX (to be announced Monday).

MSCI Meeting
The Financial Services Authority (OJK) 

along with Self-Regulatory Organization (SRO) confirmed they will hold a meeting with Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) this afternoon, Monday, February 2, 2026. This meeting is crucial amid global investor scrutiny of the Indonesian stock market and the resignation of three top OJK leaders last Friday.

Hasan Fawzi, a member of the OJK Board of Commissioners and Acting Head of the Capital Market, Derivatives Finance, and Carbon Exchange Supervisory Executive, affirmed that the OJK and SRO have prepared all the proposals requested by the global index provider.

Hasan stated that the meeting will focus on confirming the readiness of regulators and market participants, as well as concrete implementation plans for various MSCI requests. The OJK hopes the meeting will result in an official statement or agreement with MSCI regarding the future direction of the Indonesian stock market. 

Regional and Central Government Meeting

President Prabowo Subianto attended the Coordination Meeting between the Central and Regional Governments at the Sentul International Convention Center, Bogor, West Java. Attendees included Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs, Minister of Finance, and Minister of Agriculture.

It will be interesting to see what policies the president will announce to accelerate government spending at the central and regional levels and boost the economy.

U.S. Shutdown Again
The United States government officially entered a partial shutdown as of early Saturday local time (February 1, 2026). This situation occurred even though the Senate had approved a federal funding package just hours earlier. The process now depends entirely on the House of Representatives, which has not yet reconvened in Washington.

According to CNBC International, the Senate passed the package with a vote of 71-29, including five funding bills with a two-week temporary funding scheme.

The scheme is designed to buy more time for legislators to resolve differences, particularly regarding the allocation of funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

The obstacle is that the House has not yet returned to session in Washington, leaving the federal government in a limited shutdown, even though a political agreement has been reached in the Senate.

This shutdown is expected to be brief, unlike last year’s 43-day shutdown, which was the longest in U.S. history.

House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed support for the package passed by the Senate after President Donald Trump openly expressed his approval. Johnson is targeting a vote in the House on Monday.

If passed, the budget package will be sent to the White House for President Trump’s signature.

Sentiment This Week

From abroad, the United States has re-entered a partial shutdown since the weekend. Although the Senate has approved a temporary federal funding package for two weeks, the process is still awaiting approval from the House of Representatives, which will reconvene early this week.

This shutdown is expected to be brief, unlike last year’s lengthy shutdown, with the support of House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump’s open approval of the budget package.

Pressure also comes from commodity markets, particularly precious metals.

Gold, silver, and copper prices all fell sharply after reaching all-time highs.

Historically, gold has the potential to fall 20-40% after reaching a peak. MKS PAMP SA Head of Metals Strategy, Nicky Shiels, views January 2026 as the most volatile period for precious metals and opens the door for a further correction to a more technically healthy level. This decline risks spreading to mining stocks, including in the domestic market.

From within the country, attention is focused on the change of several key officials in the capital market.

Waiting for Indonesian Economic Data Releases

BPS will announce fourth-quarter 2025 economic growth data and full-year 2025 figures today. Fourth-quarter 2025 growth is expected to reach 5% due to strong consumer spending during the period, supported by Christmas and New Year holidays.

Exports continue to support the economy while investment and government spending are also expected to support the economy.

Notably, the Indonesian economy grew 1.43% (q-to-q) and 5.04% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2025.

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U.S. JOLTS Data

The United States will announce the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for December 2025 on Tuesday. Notably, U.S. job openings fell by 303,000 to 7.146 million in November 2025, the lowest level since September 2024 and well below market expectations of 7.60 million.

The decline in job openings occurred in the accommodation and food services sector (-148,000), transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-108,000), and wholesale trade (-63,000). Conversely, job openings increased in the construction sector (+90,000).

Regionally, job openings decreased in the Northeast (-34,000), South (-100,000), Midwest (-91,000), and West (-78,000).

Meanwhile, hires remained relatively unchanged and total separations also remained unchanged at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were relatively stable.

Europe

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will announce their monetary policy decisions this week, with both widely expected to hold interest rates steady. Poland will also set interest rates, and the market anticipates no change in borrowing costs in that country.

From a data perspective, initial inflation figures will be released from the Eurozone, France, and Italy. Eurozone inflation is expected to slow to 1.7%, while Italy is projected to fall to 1% and France to 0.6%.

Other data releases include Eurozone retail sales, German trade balance, Spanish unemployment data, French and Turkish trade figures, and UK house price data from Nationwide and Halifax.

Here is a schedule of events and economic releases for today:

• The President will attend the Coordination Meeting between the Central and Regional Governments at the Sentul International Convention Center, Bogor, West Java. Attendees include the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, the Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs, the Minister of Finance, and the Minister of Agriculture

• Statistics Indonesia will announce a number of economic indicators, including the consumer price index and export and import developments, at its headquarters in Central Jakarta

• PT Bank Syariah Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. intends to invite friends to the 5th Anniversary of BSI at the Grand Ballroom of BSI Tower, Jakarta Pusat.

• The OJK and the stock exchange leadership are scheduled to meet with MSCI
• S&P Global will announce PMI data for Indonesia, China and the US

Here are some key national economic indicators:

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CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH

_{Disclaimer: This article is a journalistic product representing the views of CNBC Indonesia Research. This analysis is not intended to encourage readers to buy, hold, or sell related products or investment sectors. The decision is solely with the reader, so we are not responsible for any losses or profits resulting from that decision.}