Tehran came under a fresh wave of Israeli strikes on Thursday, March 5, as the military campaign launched by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic entered its sixth day. The conflict is expanding beyond the borders of Israel and Iran, with Israel continuing operations in Lebanon. The escalating hostilities follow Iranian retaliatory strikes, involving hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones launched since Saturday, which have heavily tested missile defense systems across the Middle East.
RFI: At the sixth day of this war, do you think Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth is right – have the Americans and Israelis gained the upper hand against Iran?
François Chauvancy: I’ll reiterate your phrasing: the Americans and Israelis have regained the upper hand. However, winning a war is a different matter. Militarily, the Iranians are undoubtedly considerably weakened today, but they still maintain a strong capacity for disruption, both militarily and through hybrid warfare. There won’t be a war won without, negotiations with someone for a politically determined outcome. So, I think it’s a bit premature to say the war is won for the Americans at this point.
What is your assessment of Iran’s ability to resist, given the firepower of the United States? Does this surprise you, or was it predictable?
I think it was predictable. You have a territory three times the size of France, with a population of 90 million and a security system integrated over 47 years. So, you had a country preparing for war. Let’s not forget that initially, it was the “great Satan” that needed to be fought, and then the “little Satan.” for 47 years, the Iranians have been preparing for war. And today, they were ready. The question is whether they have all the material and equipment to win? I don’t believe so. However, they can be disruptive. And, crucially, they have the will to fight, even to the point of martyrdom. This is part of their DNA. Someone who wants to fight to the death without hesitation to join their paradise is an extremely difficult moral force to defeat solely through military means.
When Donald Trump talks about a war that should last at least four weeks, can the United States sustain that? Will they be able to support Israel and the Gulf countries at the same intensity as now?
That’s the real question. There’s a lot of contradictory information. I’ll focus on one thing: fifteen or three weeks ago, the Pentagon and Donald Trump ordered industrialists to be able to quickly and efficiently manufacture munitions and equipment, even refusing dividends to their shareholders, stating that the priority is to provide armaments. That’s the first point. Secondly, an agreement was signed fifteen days ago with an American arms manufacturer to produce Tomahawk missiles, up to 1,000 units. Today, the United States reportedly has 4,000.
These are interceptor missiles.
Exactly, long-range interceptor missiles, with a range of up to 1,600 kilometers. So, today, the American military-economic apparatus is gearing up. Whether that will be enough is another question, because you don’t produce Tomahawks in ten days…
How long does it take to replenish stocks? And how much does it cost?
The United States already has a Defense budget of $1 trillion, with a promise from Donald Trump to increase it to $1.5 trillion. You are right to inquire about timelines. When I see that it takes months to produce a missile here, it must be a similar problem for the Americans. Full effectiveness will only be achieved in a few months. We must assume that American stocks are currently sufficient for a war lasting several weeks. And there’s another aspect: don’t forget the American constitutional aspect that will normally prevent Donald Trump from waging war for more than 60 days without seeking authorization from the American Congress.
Returning to those stocks, particularly concerning the Gulf countries, which have been specifically targeted by Tehran over the past six days of war. In the United Arab Emirates, 172 out of 186 Iranian ballistic missiles were intercepted, as were 755 Iranian drones out of 812. It’s reasonable to assume that a country like the United Arab Emirates has already depleted a significant portion of its interceptor missile stock.
answer that. I simply know that the Defense budget of these different states has been colossal. Iran’s Defense budget, according to specialized magazines, is $8 billion; the United Arab Emirates, $20 billion; Saudi Arabia, $70 billion; and Israel, $35 billion. When you look at these figures, you see that military capabilities have been in place for years. Now, facing the missile threat, that’s a good question. Long-range missiles are handled by the Thaad system, one of the eight anti-missile systems sold by the Americans. The question is also about drones, where we have no good means of interception, as it’s a relatively new weapon and often easily adaptable to the military context, meaning we don’t always have the means to destroy these drones. Missiles and drones will undoubtedly get through, despite all the barriers we put in place.
Is one solution for Washington to directly target missile launchers located in Iran?
That’s already happening. Estimates put the number of launchers at between 200 and 400 last year. A number of them have been destroyed, including last June. That’s very clear. There’s information from the American side stating that the fear of missileers is such that sometimes, the weapons are abandoned. And, importantly, as Pete Hegseth may have suggested, the airspace is currently uncontested for the Americans and Israelis. There is no air defense, and there is no Iranian aviation. Today, the Israelis and Americans have free rein to strike anywhere in the Iranian state.
On the Iranian side, which allied groups can they count on?
The Kurds are more likely to fight against the Iranians, according to rumors. The Houthis, however, have not demonstrated significant offensive capabilities to date, even though they have missiles and drones. However, a key question is the stability of the Iranian population in the face of all these strikes. Don’t forget that around 60% of the population is Persian, 20% are Kurds, and 10% are Azeris. Strikes, particularly in Azerbaijan, a country with a large Azeri population, could potentially cause problems, especially since there are more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan.
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