marktbericht
Concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices drove a sell-off in European markets today, with the DAX closing lower.
The German stock market experienced a significant downturn today amid growing anxieties surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. The DAX finished the session down 1.6% at 23,815 points, erasing most of the gains made during yesterday’s rally. Yesterday, the benchmark index had increased 1.7% to 24,205 points.
Weighing on the German benchmark was the ongoing earnings season, currently in full swing. Logistics giant DHL issued a cautious outlook for 2026, causing its shares to fall as much as four percent, making it the biggest DAX loser.
Disappointing guidance for 2026 from Darmstadt-based pharmaceutical and technology company Merck also dampened investor sentiment. Shares of Merck initially rose before falling as much as three percent as the company anticipates a decline in earnings of up to ten percent in the current year due to patent expirations and currency effects.
However, the primary source of uncertainty remains the situation in the Middle East. Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at Consorsbank, noted that the volatility stemming from the Iran conflict is impacting markets in both directions. “The intensity of price fluctuations resulting from the Iran conflict is working in both directions. The gains seen in the DAX yesterday and this morning are merely a snapshot in time.”
The escalating conflict between the U.S. And Israel against Iran is prompting traders to reduce risk exposure. The conflict, now in its first week, is increasingly impacting European borders: a ballistic missile launched from Iran was intercepted by NATO air defenses over Turkish airspace, Israel continues to strike Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, drone attacks are targeting civilian infrastructure in Gulf states, and the U.S. Navy sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka.
The international shipping sector has officially declared the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz as war zones. According to the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO), approximately 20,000 seafarers are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the Iran conflict.
Growing tensions are also impacting energy markets. China is attempting to conserve fuel, and Japanese refineries are calling for the release of strategic oil reserves.
Oil and gas prices have risen, with Brent crude for delivery in May trading at $84.02 per barrel (159 liters), up more than three percent from the previous day. US light crude WTI rose 4.4 percent. The cumulative increase for both Brent and WTI since the beginning of the week is around 16 percent. Energy companies like Valero and Cheniere, whose stocks rose by around two and one percent respectively, are benefiting from this trend.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes, remains the primary concern for the market. Shipping traffic through the strait has virtually arrive to a standstill. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard recently reported an attack on an oil tanker north of the Persian Gulf and reiterated its threat to control the Strait of Hormuz in the event of war, denying passage to ships from the U.S., Israel, European nations, and their allies.
Rising oil prices are further fueling inflation concerns. “A sustained oil price crisis would reduce the scope for interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, especially if overall inflation picks up again,” said Daniela Hathorn, an analyst at Capital.com. “This risk is being priced into the markets in real-time.”
U.S. Labor market data released today also contributed to the negative sentiment on Wall Street, exacerbating inflation fears. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. Remained stable at 213,000 last week, contrary to economists’ expectations of a slight increase. Announced layoffs in the U.S. Have more than halved in February.
The labor market is a key factor in the monetary policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve. A robust labor market, however, can be problematic if it sustains high inflation, as companies pass on wage costs and the central bank maintains higher interest rates for longer, which slows growth.
After a brief recovery mid-week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average resumed its downward trend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down about half a percent at 48,457 points, then fell further by around 1.4 percent. The broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent to 6,831 points.
The Nasdaq Composite also opened slightly higher at 22,853 points, benefiting from Broadcom. The U.S. Chipmaker reported strong growth figures for the past three months and a positive outlook for the current quarter. CEO Hock Tan expects Broadcom’s AI chip revenue to exceed $100 billion by 2027, positioning the company as a growing competitor to Nvidia. Shares of Broadcom rose nearly five percent.
