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Facing disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Japanese government has authorized the release of its largest-ever strategic petroleum reserve.
The move raises questions about how long the reserve release can continue and the extent to which the Japanese economy can withstand prolonged supply constraints.
■石油備蓄と補助金にも“限界” ホルムズ海峡の封鎖が続いたら…
Japan maintains a combined petroleum reserve of approximately 460 million barrels, comprised of both a national strategic reserve and mandatory private stockpiles held by oil companies. This is equivalent to roughly 250 days of current consumption.
The current release, representing the largest drawdown in history, will draw down 80 million barrels from both the national and private reserves.
While this represents approximately one-sixth of the total reserve, questions remain about its practical usability.
According to Nobuhisa Kaino, Executive Economist at Nomura Research Institute, “If we consider the national reserve in a situation where a prolonged conflict is expected, we should leave about half of it in reserve. Failing to do so could create anxiety and confusion in society.”
This suggests that approximately 80 million barrels is the remaining usable portion of the national strategic reserve.
If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists and further reserve releases are necessary, Kaino estimates the remaining supply would last approximately 100 days. The situation underscores the vulnerability of global supply chains to geopolitical instability.
The possibility of securing oil from alternative sources is also being considered.
■ホルムズ海峡以外のルート「コストは約2〜3割増」と専門家
For example, oil from Middle Eastern producers could be routed through the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. However, current infrastructure limitations signify that the volume of oil that can be supplied via this route is significantly lower than through the Strait of Hormuz, and security risks are also present.
Increasing purchases from the United States and Canada, or sourcing recent supplies from Central and South America, are also potential options. However, competition with other oil-importing nations is anticipated, and Kaino suggests that “even if we can physically secure additional supplies, procurement costs could increase by 20-30%.”
■衣類やシャンプーなど…多くの生活用品が値上がりか
The potential for oil shortages extends beyond fuel costs and is expected to impact a wide range of consumer goods, including clothing and shampoo. The situation highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy and the potential for energy disruptions to ripple through various sectors.
