Japan Poll: 60% Back MP Reduction, Approval for Kishida Drops to 75.8%

A recent poll indicates that a majority of Japanese citizens support a proposed reduction in the number of seats in the House of Representatives. The survey, conducted by JNN, found that approximately 60% of respondents are in favor of the plan, which was submitted last week by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party.

Support for the cabinet of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has dipped slightly, falling 6.2 percentage points from the previous month to 75.8%. Conversely, those who say they “cannot support” the Kishida administration rose by 6.4 percentage points to 20.7%.

The poll also gauged public opinion regarding Prime Minister Kishida’s statement in parliament that a potential conflict over Taiwan could trigger the exercise of Japan’s right to collective self-defense under the “existential crisis situation” clause. 27% of respondents said they “think it is a problem,” while 55% said they “do not think it is a problem.”

Regarding future relations with China, 51% of those surveyed expressed some level of anxiety, with “very” and “somewhat” combined. 46% reported feeling no anxiety, citing “not at all” or “not really.”

The government’s recently approved supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, intended to support economic measures, received mixed reviews. While the budget includes provisions to address rising prices, 38% of respondents said they “evaluate” the government’s response positively, while 49% said they “do not evaluate” it favorably.

The supplementary budget will be financed, in part, by the issuance of 11.6 trillion yen in new government bonds, adding to the nation’s debt. A majority – 65% – expressed concern over the increasing national debt, while 33% said they did not feel concerned.

The proposed parliamentary seat reduction plan stipulates that if the ruling and opposition parties fail to agree on a method for reducing the number of seats within one year, 25 seats will be automatically cut from single-member districts and 20 from proportional representation districts. The JNN poll found 59% support for this plan, with 25% opposed.

When asked about their preferred form of government, the most common response – 35% – was a coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party, the Japan Innovation Party, and a new party.

A majority, 54%, believe there is no need to rush a dissolution of the House of Representatives and a general election.

Party Support Ratings:

• Liberal Democratic Party: 29.5% (up 0.6%)
• Constitutional Democratic Party: 6.3% (up 0.8%)
• Japan Innovation Party: 5.0% (up 1.1%)
• National Democratic Party: 4.1% (up 0.5%)
• Komeito: 2.7% (down 0.5%)
• Social Democratic Party: 4.3% (down 0.4%)
• Reiwa Shinsengumi: 1.5% (down 0.3%)
• Japanese Communist Party: 1.8% (down 1.0%)
• Conservative Party: 1.2% (up 0.6%)
• Social Democratic Party: 0.2% (no change)
• Future Party: 0.5% (up 0.4%)
• Other: 0.5% (up 0.3%)
• No Support: 39.5% (down 1.5%)

Survey Methodology:

JNN employed a Random Digit Dialing (RDD) method, using a computer to randomly generate numbers for both fixed-line and mobile phones. The survey was conducted on December 6th and 7th, reaching 2,850 individuals aged 18 and over nationwide (766 fixed-line, 2,084 mobile). A total of 1,021 valid responses were collected, representing 35.8% of those contacted (417 fixed-line, 604 mobile).

JNN utilizes telephone surveys to mitigate potential biases associated with internet-based polls, which often overrepresent individuals with a strong interest in the subject matter. Interviewers conducted direct interviews rather than relying on automated voice recordings. For fixed-line calls, a random individual was selected from each household to ensure a representative sample.