A trader on the cryptocurrency-powered prediction market Polymarket netted a $436,000 profit by accurately betting on the recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro,prompting concerns about potential illegal insider trading [[1]].The considerable win, made on a relatively small $32,537 wager, occurred just before President Trump announced Maduro’s detention, raising questions about whether the trader possessed non-public information [[3]]. Lawmakers are now responding, with one representative introducing legislation to restrict government employees’ participation in prediction markets [[2]].
Fuente de la imagen, Reuters
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- Autor, Danielle Kaye y Natalie Sherman
- Título del autor, Reporteros de Negocios, BBC, Nueva York
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Tiempo de lectura: 3 min
A bettor profited nearly $436,000 by correctly predicting the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before the official announcement, raising questions about potential insider trading related to the U.S. operation in Caracas.
Trading activity on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-powered platform, saw a surge in bets predicting Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the end of January in the hours leading up to President Donald Trump’s announcement on Saturday regarding the Venezuelan leader’s detention.
One account, created last month and making only four bets – all related to Venezuela – generated over $436,000 in winnings from a $32,537 wager. This substantial payout is drawing scrutiny to the potential for privileged information influencing trading decisions.
Polymarket data indicates traders placed the probability of Maduro’s removal from power at just 6.5% as of Friday afternoon, January 2nd.
However, the odds climbed to 11% shortly before midnight and then spiked in the early hours of January 3rd, signaling a sudden shift in positions just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in U.S. custody.
Polymarket has not immediately responded to a request for comment.
Fuente de la imagen, LightRocket via Getty Images
Several other Polymarket users also won tens of thousands of dollars on bets related to Maduro’s capture.
The situation is beginning to attract attention from lawmakers in Washington D.C.
Representative Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York, introduced a bill on Monday that would prohibit government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they possess “material non-public information” related to a bet.
The Rise of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have grown in popularity in the United States in recent years, with companies like Polymarket and Kalshi allowing users to bet on a wide range of events, from sports to politics. The increasing accessibility of these platforms is contributing to their growth.
Leading companies in the sector attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The industry faced increased scrutiny from regulators during the Biden administration, but has received a warmer reception under the Trump presidency.
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, holds advisory positions at both Kalshi and Polymarket.
While the use of insider information is illegal in the stock market, regulations are less defined in the realm of prediction markets.
A spokesperson for Kalshi stated that the prediction site “explicitly prohibits any form of use of inside information, including government employees operating in prediction markets related to government activities.”
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