As of early January, teh winter of 2026 is tracking as remarkably mild across much of the Northern Hemisphere, a stark contrast to the region’s historically harsh winters. Data analyzed using the Hellmann index – a measure of winter weather intensity from November through March – currently registers a low 4.7, prompting comparisons to some of the most extreme winters on record. This analysis offers a historical viewpoint on winter weather patterns,highlighting not only the severity of past seasons,but also the growing variability attributed to a changing climate.
The winter of 2026 is shaping up to be a mild one, particularly when compared to some of the most severe winters on record, according to measurements using the Hellmann index. The index, which gauges the intensity of winter weather from November 1 to March 31, currently stands at just 4.7.
That figure pales in comparison to the infamous winter of 1979, which registered a Hellmann index of 205.7. The winter of 1963, remembered for the famed Elfstedentocht race where Jaap Nienhuis finished second to last, scored a 337.2. Even more extreme was the winter of 1947, which reached a Hellmann index of 348.3 – the most severe in modern times.
While this winter hasn’t been particularly cold, snowfall has been notably higher than in recent years, a shift that experts attribute to the effects of climate change. The last significant snow event occurred in 2021, when many areas experienced an average of 6 centimeters of snow over a week. The winter of 2010 saw even more prolonged snowfall, with 26 days recording at least 1 centimeter of accumulation.
Looking further back, the 1980s featured several substantial snow seasons, including the winters of 1981 and 1985, both of which saw snow cover for twenty days. These periods highlight a pattern of more consistent winter conditions than those observed in recent decades.
The winter of 1979 remains particularly notorious, not just for its cold temperatures but for its overall extreme conditions. The season began early, with a significant snowfall arriving in late November, and continued with intermittent thaws that were insufficient to melt the accumulating snow and ice. Despite temperatures dropping to 20 degrees below freezing in January, the poor ice quality prevented the running of the Elfstedentocht race. Details of the 1963 Elfstedentocht and Nienhuis’s experience can be found here.
The contrast between the current mild winter and these historical extremes underscores the increasing variability of winter weather patterns. This variability has implications for infrastructure, agriculture, and recreational activities, prompting ongoing research into the long-term effects of climate change on seasonal weather.
