Montenegro is currently the closest of all candidate countries to becoming the 28th member of the European Union. At least in terms of completed chapters of the accession process, with the Balkan state having finalized 13 out of a total of 33. The government in Podgorica aims to turn into a union member by 2028, a goal the European Commission considers realistic.
As reported by Politico, concerns have been growing within EU structures in recent years regarding further expansion of the bloc. These concerns are largely driven by what some perceive as Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, “blackmailing” EU states on foreign policy matters.
Specifically, on February 29, 2024, Hungary, along with Slovakia, blocked the 20th package of EU sanctions against Russia. The Orbán government also opposed the approval of a €90 billion loan intended to aid Ukraine.
Such instances are not uncommon, prompting discussions within the highest EU bodies about “the lessons learned from the 2004 enlargement,” according to one European Commission official who spoke on condition of anonymity. That year saw eight states from the former Soviet bloc join the Union, including Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.
The accession treaty with Montenegro is expected to reflect these “lessons.” The Commission official added that the EU plans to include “long-term guarantees” in the agreement, ensuring a mechanism to respond should the Balkan state deviate from the principles of democracy and the rule of law upon which the EU is founded.
Restrictions on Veto Power
Work on the specific points of Montenegro’s accession treaty is set to begin with the current Cypriot presidency of the Council of the EU. The presidency will establish a working group within weeks to draft the agreement.
Yet, the form the treaty will take remains unclear. “You’ll see some ideas, but no concrete points have been submitted yet,” one European diplomat told Politico, also requesting anonymity.
Discussions are reportedly underway regarding limiting the right of veto, specifically its suspension if Montenegro or other newly acceding states were to violate fundamental EU values, such as the rule of law.
In most cases, member states currently decide by qualified majority. However, in matters of foreign and security policy, unanimous agreement is required – making the approval of sanctions packages particularly challenging.
The question of abolishing the veto power, however, is sensitive, even for Montenegro. As one state official told the server, limiting voting rights would be a red line for Montenegro.
Another potential obstacle to any possible expansion is the requirement for the consent of all existing EU members. France, however, is currently taking a cautious stance on enlargement and is also slowing down the drafting of a treaty with Montenegro, reportedly due to presidential elections expected in the Western European country next year.
