With the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, the United States and Russia have been left without a formal agreement limiting their nuclear arsenals for the first time in half a century. The treaty’s lapse increases anxieties over a potential new arms race as both nations possess roughly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons[[1]]. While Russia has proposed a one-year extension and the U.S. has engaged in diplomatic outreach to China, notable hurdles remain, including disagreements over the scope of future negotiations and the inclusion of other nuclear powers.
New START Treaty Expires, Raising Fears of Unfettered Nuclear Arms Race
Russia Seeks One-Year Extension, Demands UK and France Join; U.S. Calls for China’s Inclusion, Beijing Declines
The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), expired on February 5, sparking concerns about a renewed and unrestricted nuclear arms race. This marks the first time in 50 years that the two major nuclear powers have no formal agreements limiting their nuclear arsenals.
The expiration of New START eliminates a key mechanism for transparency between Washington and Moscow, according to the Arms Control and Disarmament Center, a Washington D.C.-based think tank. The center emphasized that the treaty’s value extended beyond simply capping the number of warheads, as it allowed both countries to base decisions on verified information rather than speculation.
The development underscores the increasingly fragile state of international arms control agreements. In recent years, several key treaties aimed at limiting military buildup have been abandoned, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which significantly reduced short-range nuclear missiles in Europe, and the Open Skies Treaty, which allowed unarmed reconnaissance flights over military facilities. The Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, limiting conventional forces deployed in Europe, has also been effectively dismantled.
The treaty, originally signed in 2010 and entering into force in 2011, limited both the U.S. and Russia to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. Periodic inspections of each other’s nuclear facilities were also a key component.
Nuclear arms control talks between the two countries stalled following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In September of last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a one-year extension of New START, but the U.S. did not respond.
Recent diplomatic exchanges offer a potential, though uncertain, path forward. On February 5, both the U.S. and Russia engaged in separate phone calls with China, raising the possibility of subsequent discussions. The U.S. has stated that any new arms control agreement must include China, while Russia insists that France and the United Kingdom also be party to any new negotiations.
However, China has rejected calls for trilateral talks, citing the imbalance in nuclear arsenals between the three countries. Experts suggest that the prospects for a new arms control agreement remain dim in the near future. The announcement could influence future diplomatic talks and potentially escalate global security risks.
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