The landmark New START treaty, a key agreement limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, expired February 5th, raising fears of a renewed and unrestrained arms race between the two global powers. The treaty’s end removes decades-old verification measures and constraints on strategic nuclear weapons, occurring amidst already strained international relations, notably following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While both nations have, for the time being, shown no interest in extension, the implications of this breakdown in arms control are sparking urgent debate among security experts and policymakers.
Nuclear Arms Race Fears Rise as New START Treaty Expires
Concerns are mounting over a potential new nuclear arms race following the expiration of the New START treaty between the United States and Russia on February 5th. The treaty, which limited the number of strategic nuclear warheads each country could deploy, had been a cornerstone of arms control for over a decade.
The end of New START removes the last remaining bilateral limit on U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons, raising anxieties about a renewed escalation in the development and deployment of these weapons. This development comes at a time of already heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
According to reports, there is currently no indication that either Russia or the United States is interested in extending the treaty. “Neither Russia nor the United States, for the time being, have any interest in extending New START,” sources stated. The treaty’s demise leaves the international community without a key verification mechanism for monitoring the nuclear arsenals of the two largest nuclear powers.
Signed in 2010, New START capped the number of strategic nuclear warheads that the U.S. and Russia could deploy at 1,550 each, and limited the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. Europe 1 provides a detailed explanation of the treaty’s provisions and history.
The situation is further complicated by calls for any future nuclear agreements to include China. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio recently stated that any new nuclear accord with Russia must incorporate China, reflecting concerns about China’s growing nuclear capabilities. Boursorama reported on Rubio’s statement.
The expiration of New START is widely seen as increasing the risk of a new arms race, with potentially destabilizing consequences for global security. The lack of constraints and verification measures could lead to increased mistrust and a build-up of nuclear arsenals. 24 Heures highlighted the real danger of a renewed nuclear arms race.
The end of the treaty represents “a leap into the nuclear unknown,” according to analysts, and underscores the urgent need for renewed diplomatic efforts to address the growing threat of nuclear proliferation. Le Monde described the situation as a significant setback for nuclear arms control.
Les Echos reported that, for now, neither Russia nor the United States sees a benefit in extending the treaty, suggesting a complex geopolitical calculus is at play.
