Is People’s Sexiest Man Alive a Recession Indicator? A New Theory Gains Traction
A novel economic theory circulating online suggests that People magazine’s annual selection of the “Sexiest Man Alive” may correlate with impending economic recessions.
The theory, which gained attention this week, posits that when People makes a particularly strong choice for the title, a recession often follows. Proponents point to past selections, beginning with Patrick Swayze in 1991, two years before a recession. Subsequent selections of Brad Pitt in 2000 and Pierce Brosnan in 2001 coincided with the 2000-2001 recession, and Hugh Jackman earned the title in 2009, at the onset of the Great Recession. The magazine’s choices are often debated, but this theory hinges on the idea that they occasionally “get it right.”
People recently named actor Jonathan Bailey as its Sexiest Man Alive, a decision the magazine itself acknowledged as a success, stating, “We know, we nailed.” This timing has fueled concerns among those following the theory, as a recession could significantly impact consumer spending and investment. Understanding economic indicators is crucial for investors and policymakers alike; you can learn more about key economic indicators from the Investopedia glossary.
While the correlation is subjective and relies on agreement with People’s choices, the theory has resonated online, prompting discussion about unconventional recession predictors. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of U.S. recessions, but their determinations often lag behind the economic events themselves.
Economists are not commenting on the theory at this time, but will continue to monitor economic data for more traditional signs of a potential downturn.
