Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to believe he can outmaneuver the United States during potential peace negotiations, despite having no intention of ending his country’s nearly four-year-long invasion of Ukraine. The assessment, from a senior European intelligence official, comes as international efforts to identify a resolution to the conflict continue.
Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, stated that Moscow is deliberately prolonging talks with Washington, with “absolutely no discussion about how to really cooperate with the U.S. In a meaningful way.” Rosin shared these findings during an online briefing ahead of the publication of Estonia’s annual security report on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.
According to Rosin, intelligence gathered from “Russian internal discussions” reveals that Russian officials still view Washington as their “main enemy.” He did not elaborate on the specifics of how this information was obtained.
The Estonian report too suggests that a Russian attack on NATO is unlikely in the coming year or the next, but cautions that Moscow remains a significant threat as it continues to bolster its military capabilities. Despite publicly stating a desire for a negotiated settlement, Russian officials have shown limited willingness to compromise and insist on the fulfillment of their demands.
Progress Reported by White House
The assessment contrasts with a statement from a White House official, who indicated that negotiators for President Donald Trump have made “considerable progress” in discussions aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. This development underscores the differing perspectives on the state of negotiations between European and American officials.
The White House official pointed to recent prisoner exchanges as evidence of progress, citing a recent agreement brokered in Abu Dhabi between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia that led to the release of over 300 prisoners.
En juin dernier, un prisonnier de guerre ukrainien célébrait sa libération avec émotion. (Photo d’archives)
Photo : Reuters / Ukrainian Presidential Press Service
The development could influence future diplomatic talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated last week that Washington had given Ukraine and Russia until June to reach an agreement. Trump has previously set several deadlines that ultimately passed without apparent results.
Competing Narratives
Fiona Hill, a Russia specialist and former advisor to Donald Trump during his first term, explained that Trump and his team are constructing a narrative that portrays the U.S. President as a peacemaker. They are reluctant to adjust their analysis that Putin wants to end the war.
“Both leaders,” Hill told the AP, “need their version of events to be true and are sticking to their version of the truth: Putin as a winner in Ukraine and Trump as a negotiator.”
Selon Fiona Hill, spécialiste de la Russie et ex-conseillère de Donald Trump, l’entourage de Donald Trump veut présenter ce dernier comme un artisan de la paix et ne croit pas, pour cette raison, que Moscou veuille poursuivre la guerre en Ukraine. (Photo d’archives)
Photo : Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite
While Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested that Vladimir Putin wants peace, he has at times appeared frustrated by the Russian leader’s lack of engagement in negotiations.
From an intelligence perspective, Rosin said he does not understand why U.S. Officials believe the Russian leader wants to end the war.
Continued Russian Bombardment
On Tuesday morning, February 10, 2026, Russian glide bombs killed an 11-year-old girl and her mother in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, regional head Vadym Filashkin reported.
Seven other people, including a seven-year-old girl, were injured.
Overnight, at least five people were injured, including a baby and two children, during Russian drone strikes across Ukraine, regional authorities said.
