With just over two months until Rhineland-Palatinate voters head to the polls on March 22nd, a new survey indicates a stable, yet competitive, political landscape. The latest SWR trend poll shows the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintaining its lead, while the Social Democrats (SPD) have gained some ground. The survey also reveals a shift in voter priorities, with education now surpassing immigration as the top concern for residents of the state.
With less than two months until the state election on March 22nd, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) remains the strongest political force in Rhineland-Palatinate, according to the latest survey. The results suggest a relatively stable political landscape as campaigning intensifies.
Poll Shows CDU Maintaining Lead
Table of Contents
- Poll Shows CDU Maintaining Lead
- Dissatisfaction with State Government Grows
- Direct Election for Minister-President: Schweitzer Leads
- How to Use the Filter Function in the Graphics
- Key Issues: Education Now Tops Immigration
- Program Tip
- CDU Leads in Competence Ratings
- Survey Basis for the Current Rhineland-Palatinate Trend
The CDU currently holds 29% of the vote, unchanged from the previous Rhineland-Palatinate trend survey conducted in October 2025. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Minister-President Alexander Schweitzer, has gained ground, increasing its support to 26% – a 3-percentage-point increase. However, the SPD remains well below its 2021 election result of 35.7%.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is the third-strongest party in the poll, more than doubling its previous state election result from 8.3% to 18% (-1). The Green Party remains steady at 10%. The Left party is projected to enter the state parliament for the first time, receiving 6% of the vote. The Free Voters, however, are expected to fall short of the 5% threshold, remaining at 4%. Other parties, including the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the BSW, collectively garner 7% of the vote.
Dissatisfaction with State Government Grows
Compared to the last Rhineland-Palatinate trend survey in the fall, fewer respondents expressed satisfaction with the performance of the state government – a coalition of the SPD, Green Party, and FDP – with 44% (-5) indicating approval. A majority, 50%, voiced dissatisfaction. Despite this, the approval rating of the Mainz coalition government has improved since its low point in July 2023.
Despite these satisfaction levels, 37% of respondents favor a state government led by the SPD, while a close 31% would prefer a CDU-led cabinet. 19% would like to see the AfD in charge.
Direct Election for Minister-President: Schweitzer Leads
If voters could directly elect the Minister-President, incumbent Alexander Schweitzer (SPD) would receive 34% of the vote. CDU challenger Gordon Schnieder trails with 14%, and Jan Bollinger (AfD) receives 8%. Notably, even their own party supporters are not fully convinced, with 44% supporting Schnieder and 34% backing Bollinger.
However, nearly half of those surveyed (44%) remain undecided on a direct election for Minister-President.
Key Issues: Education Now Tops Immigration
There has been a shift in priorities when respondents were asked about the most pressing issues facing the state. Education, schools, and training now top the list with 29% (+6). Immigration is a concern for 22% (-1), followed by mobility and transportation (18% +2) and the economy (13% -1). In the last survey, education and immigration were both at the top with 23% each.
Healthcare is a top priority for one in ten respondents (+2), while housing and social issues are each cited by 8% (+/-0 and -1, respectively).
A special focus on healthcare in Rhineland-Palatinate will be presented tonight (Thursday) at 7:30 PM in SWR Aktuell Rheinland-Pfalz and subsequently in the political magazine Zur Sache Rheinland-Pfalz.
CDU Leads in Competence Ratings
While its top candidate, Schnieder, is not scoring points in terms of personal likeability, respondents trust the CDU the most on nearly all key issues. This is particularly true for the economy and internal security. In education policy, it is in close competition with the SPD, and in migration policy with the AfD.
