Kyiv – A new assessment from a leading military expert details systemic failings within the Russian army, ranging from widespread corruption and lack of trust among units to deeply flawed intelligence that fueled Moscow’s initial invasion of Ukraine. Professor Tormod Heier, a specialist in Russian security policy at the Norwegian Defense University College, paints a picture of a military hampered by internal issues and strategic miscalculations, contributing to critically important losses and a weakening of Russia’s overall position in the conflict. The analysis underscores the reliance on external support, notably from China, to sustain Russia’s war effort and suggests President Vladimir Putin’s options for achieving his objectives are increasingly limited.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has left it increasingly reliant on a handful of nations – China, Iran, and North Korea – to sustain its military operations.
Table of Contents
- Russia’s war in Ukraine has left it increasingly reliant on a handful of nations – China, Iran, and North Korea – to sustain its military operations.
- – Leadership Based on Fear
- – Officers at All Levels Steal
- – Russians Don’t Trust Each Other
- – Russia Has Already Lost This War
- – Putin’s Room for Maneuver is Reduced
- – Gave Putin a Completely False Picture
Despite being outnumbered, Russia has struggled to decisively defeat Ukrainian forces. What explains this ongoing challenge?
“It’s a combination of factors, both within Russia and in Ukraine and Europe,” explains Tormod Heier, professor of military strategy and operations and docent at the Swedish Defence University in Stockholm. Heier is currently a visiting researcher at Boston University in the United States, leading a research project on security and defense cooperation between the U.S. and Europe. “Within Russia, the issue stems primarily from the fact that these battalion tactical groups – which were essentially the offensive, mechanized fist of the Russian land component – were not equipped for a war of attrition.”
– Leadership Based on Fear
Heier argues that the Russian military was structured for swift, limited-scope maneuvers intended to achieve rapid victory.
“This type of mechanized setup for the large Russian army, with around 170 battalion-sized units, didn’t function particularly well. Furthermore, leadership is characterized by fear rather than trust, as is the case in the West, and the military structure is plagued by widespread corruption.”
– Officers at All Levels Steal
Heier cited numerous examples of the extent of the corruption.
“Officers at all levels are selling off items such as night vision goggles and new spare tires. They have stolen body armor, combat rations, and uniforms – anything they can profit from. This theft, as an integral part of the culture of being a Russian officer, has a significant impact,” Heier noted. The reliance on external support highlights the strain the conflict is placing on Russia’s resources and logistical capabilities.
– Russians Don’t Trust Each Other
He also believes the technological dimension plays a significant role in the decline of the Russian army.
“Russians aren’t particularly good at coordinating across levels, across front sections, and across units. Because of a lack of trust, they can’t achieve what the West prioritizes: synergy between mutually reinforcing components within the military toolbox. These are just some of the factors that can explain why things went so wrong,” Heier summarized.
– Russia Has Already Lost This War
He pointed to the enormous Russian losses, estimated by several sources to be hundreds of thousands killed and wounded. Some estimates are even higher.
“Considering they have lost 1.2 million soldiers, including killed, wounded, those who have fled, and those missing, as well as tens of thousands of armored vehicles, one could argue that Russia would have lost now if it weren’t for China. But Russia has, in any case, lost this war on many fronts,” Heier said.
– Putin’s Room for Maneuver is Reduced
He believes there is no doubt that Russia’s president is now in a very difficult situation.
“As the costs of the war have become so high for Russia, Putin’s room for maneuver is reduced. It is becoming difficult to justify anything less than a total victory in Ukraine for Putin now. Beyond control of Ukraine, political control of Kyiv, and territorial control of the Donbas, Russia will not achieve its political ambitions as set by Putin and the Kremlin, namely to restore Russian greatness as an independent great power with its own exclusive sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and buffer states outside itself, which keep NATO at arm’s length,” Heier explained.
– Gave Putin a Completely False Picture
He noted that the entire Russian decision-making system and command chain, within which the Russian land forces operate, is characterized by self-censorship and groupthink.
“This means that the basis for decision-making that underpinned the operation was based on wishful thinking. Because the FSB felt they had to overfulfill the expectations placed on the Kremlin that this war would be quick. Then you start ‘touching up the bride’ when you create intelligence reports, and you give Putin a completely false picture of how quick and easy this will be.”
Russian intelligence claimed that Zelenskyy had poor support in the political landscape, that the Ukrainian population was pro-Russian, that Ukrainian forces were poorly trained and an easy match for the Russians, and that the West was divided and would not react quickly or seriously if the war went quickly.
“The sum of this explains much of the debacle,” Professor Tormod Heier believes.
