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If Europe wants real peace, it must make a frozen war unattractive

Europe’s war fatigue risks entrenching Ukraine’s frozen conflict—analysts debate how to break the stalemate

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The brief

Ukraine’s resistance to prolonged conflict has shifted focus to preventing a frozen war, where territorial disputes linger indefinitely. Coverage highlights growing skepticism in Europe about normalizing relations with Russia while Ukraine remains divided, with some arguing Western diplomacy must now prioritize making a frozen conflict strategically unappealing rather than waiting for a resolution.

Analysis from *The Kyiv Independent*, *Lowy Institute*, and *Responsible Statecraft* emphasizes the need for a new approach, questioning whether Western powers have lost patience with prolonged uncertainty. *The Spectator* and *New Eastern Europe* frame the debate around the risks of complacency, suggesting that without decisive action, a frozen war could become the default outcome. Watch for policy shifts in Brussels and Kyiv—specifically whether Europe will adopt measures to deter prolonged stalemates, such as economic or diplomatic levers targeting Russian occupation zones.

Coverage does not yet specify concrete proposals, but the tone suggests urgency in rethinking long-term strategies.

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Quick answers

What is a 'frozen war' in this context?

A frozen war refers to a conflict where active hostilities have ceased, but no peace agreement has been reached, leaving territorial disputes unresolved and tensions simmering.

Which European countries are most vocal about this issue?

Coverage does not specify individual countries, but outlets like *New Eastern Europe* and *The Spectator* suggest broad European war fatigue is driving the debate.

Has Ukraine formally abandoned hopes for a swift victory?

*The Lowy Institute* and *The Kyiv Independent* imply Ukraine is adapting to prolonged resistance, but no formal declaration of surrendering on territorial goals is mentioned.

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