Rocket launch costs have dropped 96% since 1960. How low can they go?

A new study published in July 2026, which analyzed 4,400 rockets launched since 1960, reports that the cost to transport cargo into space has declined significantly. The research identifies a correlation between increasing total cargo volume and lower prices, noting a 21.2 percent decrease for every doubling of payload volume.

Coverage from Space Daily, The Times, and Mobility Engineering Technology highlights the scale of this economic shift, comparing current trends to historical steamship freight rates. Goldman Sachs and heise online emphasize the connection between these lower launch costs, artificial intelligence, and the broader expansion of the space economy, with some outlets drawing parallels to the East India Company.

Projections from the study estimate that the cost to put a kilogram into orbit could drop to $27 by 2030, down from $3,868 in 2025. Future developments will likely center on whether these cost trajectories persist as global space operations continue to scale.