Moderna raises 2026 outlook as CEO says newer vaccines are gaining traction

The biotech giant posted $1.31 billion in revenue for the third quarter – a 29 percent jump from a year earlier – and swung to a GAAP net income of $162 million, or 38 cents per share, after reporting a loss in the comparable period.

That financial beat was more than a numbers game; it signaled that the company’s newer mRNA products are finally leaving the shadows of its 2020‑2022 Covid‑19 boom. CEO Stéphane Bancel highlighted the “full‑year impact” of its next‑generation Covid‑19 vaccine, which received U.S. approval in May 2025. Because Covid‑19 vaccines are seasonal and most contracts are sealed in the first quarter, the shot only saw a “small launch” last year, but international demand and a string of long‑term government agreements have now lifted sales.

Geography played an equally pivotal role. Bancel told investors that expansion into Canada, the United Kingdom and several Asian markets helped broaden the revenue base, while a concerted cost‑cutting effort turned operating expenses into a profit driver. The latest quarterly report showed $780 million generated in the United States and $533 million abroad, underscoring that the overseas surge was not a fleeting blip but a structural shift.

The outlook upgrade – now 15 percent to 25 percent revenue growth for 2026, up from a ceiling of 10 percent – rests on two more pillars. First, the newly approved stand‑alone flu shot, which cleared the U.S. regulator in August, is slated for a “limited launch” in 2026, positioning Moderna to capture a seasonal market that has long eluded its mRNA platform. Second, the company’s partnership with Merck on a personalized cancer vaccine showed promising late‑stage data in melanoma patients, suggesting a future revenue stream beyond infectious disease.

Investors and analysts now have a new narrative to test: whether the momentum from these newer vaccines can sustain the higher guidance across multiple quarters. If the seasonal Covid product continues to deliver on a global scale and the flu and cancer candidates clear later regulatory hurdles, Moderna could solidify its position as a broader mRNA platform rather than a Covid‑centric specialist. The key uncertainty remains the durability of demand in markets outside the United States and the timing of the flu‑shot rollout, both of which will shape the real‑world relevance of the 15‑25 percent growth target.